BY
There is an inherent problem with taking actions
that frame a nation as truculent, belligerent, unpredictable and by extension
untrustworthy – that problem being that any relationship that is necessary with
such a nation is purely transactional in nature, and conducted with the minimum
amount of goodwill due to a strong undercurrent of competitor/adversarial
discord.
“If needs must”, or “only if it can’t be
avoided” policy decisions are made – and policy decisions are usually fairly
long term in their nature – unless they quickly prove to be poor and counterproductive
decisions.
Trust and predictability take a long time to
build with others – but only moments to break when all is said and done.
This is indeed true of the current Kremlin occupants, the “collective
Putin” and the regime change that has seen Russia witness a move from “managed
democracy” to authoritarianism – a clear regime change has taken place, despite
the people involved remaining (more or less) the same.
Indeed as the “collective Putin” has shrunk in
number, whilst institutional cronyism has insured the best and brightest get
nowhere near the top, increasingly occurring and prickly domestic issues are
receiving poor and untimely decisions that further compound problems.
Both blame and diversionary adventures are required, and this is clearly
apparent in Kremlin domestic and foreign policy with the associated fairytale
propaganda. Everybody is to blame except those that are to blame and make
the decisions.
For those that are able, avoiding as much
unnecessary contact as possible is wise – certainly for the moment as evermore
retarded decisions are made. For those that saw it coming, avoidance
options were set in motion prior to the current events.
Having blogged
on 3rd October 2013, “I suppose we should now look toward socially engineered
discontent in Crimea and other pro/ethnic Russian regions, via agent
provocateur or subterfuge, during any time period of signing and ratification
as a real policy option for the Kremlin. A few years of uncharted water
lays ahead – agreements signed or not.” – thus pre EuroMaidan, that
the Kremlin would start societal mischief in Crimea (albeit in no way
foreseeing it going as far as illegal annexation), it will have been crystal
clear to those people with far better minds and much greater intellect than the
author of this blog, who saw similar writing upon The Kremlin walls too.
Indeed that writing was starting to appear upon The Kremlin walls with
the “Russia without Putin” protests of 2012 – perhaps before that for those
with a trained eye.
As such, with the writing daubed upon the wall
being read by some very clever Chinese and Central Asian people (and the
Central Asians have long petitioned for logistics routes avoiding Russia since
the collapse of the USSR), the Trans-Caspian route avoiding Russian territory
when transporting Chinese goods to Europe that was set in motion some years
back will indeed prove to be prudent. This is not to ignore a similar
route avoiding Russian territory from Baku, Tibilisi and Kars to Europe (called
the TRACECA) which is due for commissioning in 2016 when the final stretch
of railway line is completed.
Whilst all international headlines were on
Turkey’s downing of the Russian bomber, a logistics and transportation
consortium quietly signed an agreement. The project founders are China’s
Minsheng Logistics, Georgia’s Trans Caucasus Terminals (TCT), Kazakhstan’s KTZ
Express (part of the Kazakhstan Railways), Azerbaijan’s Karvan Logistics and
Caspian Shipping Company with Turkey the destination – and an apparent option
for Ukraine to join then serving as a transportation link to central and
northern Europe. China did make a formal invitation to Ukraine to do so
in April 2015 – and Ukraine would be foolish not to take the opportunity after
all.
All in all, none of this appears to be
particularly good news for the Trans-Siberian railway – albeit welcome news to
almost all Russian neighbours – particularly with it being a Chinese project
that The Kremlin will therefore leave well alone.
No comments:
Post a Comment