Kateryna
Zarembo
KIEV — Ukrainians were surprised to learn about the
Dutch referendum on the European Union’s association agreement with Ukraine:
Why had the issue touched a nerve in the Netherlands? But the vote is not
really about Ukraine — it’s about distrust of national politics and the
country’s growing Euroskeptic sentiment.
The association agreement must be ratified by all 28 EU member countries
before it comes into force. All EU members, including the Netherlands, have
ratified it, but the process has been stalled by the Dutch referendum that was
triggered by a petition of over 450,000 signatures last September, forcing the Dutch government
to put the issue to a vote.
The April 6 vote will have important consequences for
the rest of the EU and beyond. A Yes vote would be a boost for the EU’s
European neighborhood policy, and send a strong signal to Russia that Europe
cannot be intimidated. Recently opinion polls have moved in this direction, and
a Yes majority is now a real possibility.
But imagine that the Dutch vote No, and that the agreement does not come
into force. Other countries could be tempted to follow suit, and all future
treaties with external countries could be held hostage by a single EU member.
The EU’s role in making trade deals and cooperating with countries on issues
like fighting organized crime and tackling environmental problems would grind
to a halt.
Such a precedent would be particularly dangerous amid the crises the EU
currently finds itself in: the refugee crisis, growing nationalist and populist
tendencies in a number of EU member countries, and the business-first approach
of other countries, where money takes precedence over democracy and rule of
law. Because of these circumstances, the Dutch referendum could mark the end of
the EU’s ability to tackle the problems that confront us all.
Critics may recall the rejection of the European
Constitution in 2005 — it caused mainly practical problems that were later
fixed by the Treaty of Lisbon, without any of the disastrous consequences the
No side had predicted. But the European Constitution was an attempt to change
the way the EU functions internally. A No vote in this year’s #Dutch_referendum
would affect the EU’s ability to operate outside its borders. It would be a blow
to the EU’s image as a transformative force — an image in which it takes pride
and which, among other things, justifies its existence.
Ukraine and the Netherlands are an odd couple in this story. It is a
bitter irony that one of the EU’s founding members and a country that has long
craved EU membership (although we realize this may take decades to fulfill)
find themselves at the focus of a historical event for the Union.
A No vote would deal a serious blow to the EU, just as the world around
us becomes more unstable and uncertain — and thus requires more, not less EU
involvement. If the Dutch vote Yes, EU citizens would have as many reasons to
celebrate the outcome as would the Ukrainians. Not only because the agreement
would enhance stability, promote human rights and lead to more and better trade
with Ukraine — although this is, of course, important.
Above all, a positive
outcome in the Dutch referendum would mean that the European Union continues to
be a force for good in its immediate neighborhood.
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