BY
In yesterday’s
entry appeared
this paragraph – “A reader may rightly ponder just how long reformist,
anti-corruption, and democracy advocates such as Mustafa Nayem,
Serhiy Leshchenko (and numerous others of similar ideology and moral
fortitude) can continue to remain within the Block Poroshenko faction and
retain their integrity and perceived moral high ground. Clearly it seems
that removing them in a similar manner to Messrs Tomenko and Firsov is
currently seen as far too problematic given their high domestic and
international profiles. How many other morally upright and ethically
sound new MPs would follow them out of Block Poroshenko if they left?
Enough to cripple the faction and party – thus perhaps forcing elections
far sooner than Autumn 2016/Spring 2017? Would it have sufficient
resonance to change “western minds” regarding early Verkhovna Rada elections?”
The questions
clearly arising are those of when this eventually occurs, but also when the
reformers go, they go to where?
For those newly
minted reformist parliamentarians, the “when” will depend upon whether they are
subjected to Article 81 of the Constitution of Ukraine and thus exiled from
their parties under the “party/faction loyalty clause”, or whether their moral
code forces them to leave voluntarily, or the confirmation of the timing of
early Verkhovna Rada elections becoming clear to provide the platform to do so.
They can have
little faith in retaining any given a position on any party list under the
proportional representation system now that law
3700 has become
statute. As already stated in a previous entry – “To go to the
extremes, in theory, a party can stuff the top half of its party list with
reformers that have traction with the public, fill the bottom half with odious
hangovers from post-Soviet oligarchical politics, have the CEC recognise the
result, and then strike down the reformers en masse leaving the seats to be
filled by the loathsome – lawfully.”
Clearly many
will try and remain in situ for as long as possible – for it is normally easier
to effect change from the inside rather than the outside as any experienced
agent of change would confirm.
As to the
“where” the reformers would go is somewhat unclear – particularly for those
that have already left or been expelled by their political parties and now sit
as independents.
Some may decide
to remain within their current party structures and fight the fight they
believe to be right from within the bellies of those political parties and/or
factions.
Others may
gravitate from their current political parties to others more aligned with
their vision for Ukraine. It is not beyond possibility for example, that
some in Block Poroshenko or the People’s Front would be drawn to Samopomich –
this despite Samopomich having excommunicated the outstanding Hanna Hopko, a
reformist icon.
There is also
the NGO turned political party Democratic Alliance. It was an outstanding
NGO, part financed by Carnegie with many of its members subsequently trained in
local governance, law and civil activism, Indeed had it not been for the
internal decision to move from NGO to political party at the height of the
Yanukovych brutality towards civil society in order to claim “political
repression” should it be targeted, it would still remain one of the best NGOs
in Ukraine rather than one of the least known political parties. An
entity to join or co-opt perhaps.
Maybe the
Movement for Cleaning now associated with Governor Saakashvili will move from
being a “political movement” to a political party. Although this entity
predates any involvement from the Odessa Governor, it is now broadly associated
with him. That said, the Governor may create his own entity, for the
Movement for Cleaning is not internally designed to accommodate the leadership
model, nor style, that the Governor would need. It operates on the
horizontal and not the vertical in its decision making.
Perhaps any
number of the “reformer High Chamberlains” will create their own entities.
The “reformist church” is not short of “individual reformist icons” – it
is absent an overarching roof and strong reformist institutions.
The are several
other established reformist possibilities that may directly enter the political
fray too – but the point has been made.
Yet there are
other issues aside from the current “individual reform icons” and personality
clashes that may occur under one political roof. There are also more
fundamental issues within the reformist groups that no western punditry seems
to recognise.
Reform is a
broad church and thus has its schisms over the interpretation of its scripture.
How to reconcile the genuine reformers of the political left with those
genuine reformers of the political right if a cohesive, effective and robust
reform political entity is to emerge in a fight for constituency support?
Genuine
democracy and rule of law reformers they may all be, yet their final
destinations are quite different with regard to the contemporary, modern State
they want to build. Can they remain solid under a single reform roof long
enough to put in place the reform mechanisms required without falling out over
the paths such mechanisms then present once put in place? Can they live
under the same roof at all, despite their equally genuine reformist DNA?
It is very lazy
thinking and pitiful analysis to lump them all together as a homogeneous
reformist group that will have no internal weaknesses, but that will simply
blaze a robust path out of the darkness and into the light for Ukraine to
follow.
Perhaps they can
all gather under the same reformist roof, perhaps not – but it will be
problematic. The concept of reform common among all associated actors,
icons and groups may be a cross cutting cleavage that unites them all – but
would it be enough given many other differences? If it is enough, then
for how long would it be enough?
There is a clear
need, and it will undoubtedly occur, for a reformist political party to contest
the next Verkhovna Rada elections, be they Autumn 2016 or Spring 2017.
The open question is perhaps how many reformist parties there will be.
Too many will play into the hands of the established Grey Cardinals of
post-Soviet Ukrainian politics. Under one roof it would seem likely to
self destruct within 2 years (maximum).
The next
question that would need to be answered for any such party/parties is with
which others they would join in any coalition – either in power or opposition?
Perhaps an entry for another day once whatever reformist parties there
will be have been created, and their leadership is known.
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