Neil Buckley and Roman Olearchyk in Kiev
Kiev could move
towards greater EU integration or slide back into cronyist authoritarianism
Two years on from the protests that ousted
pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine’s revolution is confronting
its central paradox: many of the leaders who emerged from it were veterans of
the oligarch-dominated political system it aimed to sweep away.
Kiev has been in political ferment since a
foreign-born, technocratic economy minister, Aivaras Abromavicius, resigned five weeks ago. He alleged that cronies of President Petro
Poroshenko — himself a billionaire businessman — and prime minister Arseny
Yatseniuk — another of the protest leaders but a political veteran — were blocking reforms to preserve their access to lucrative cash
flows.
Mr Yatseniuk survived a subsequent no-confidence vote, but was badly weakened. Ukraine is now
grappling with whether to appoint a new premier and government — potentially a
wholly non-political, technocratic one — to keep it free from vested interests.
While this still seems unlikely, a broader
question is whether to call early elections to accelerate political renewal.
At stake may be the future of Ukraine’s pro-western reform project. Decisions in coming days will be critical in
determining whether the ex-Soviet republic continues towards greater
integration with the EU and more transparent, democratic governance. Or
whether, as after its 2004 “Orange” revolution, it slides back into the
cronyist authoritarianism typical of most post-Soviet states, and back under
Moscow’s influence.
“Ukraine had a revolution, but no revolutionary
change,” says Mikheil Saakashvili, the former Georgian president who led his
country’s 2003 pro-democracy revolution and subsequent reforms, and has been
appointed a regional governor in Ukraine by Mr Poroshenko.
Mr Saakashvili is forming an anti-corruption
movement and holding roadshows across the country, to enthusiastic receptions.
Without change that ordinary Ukrainians can feel, warns Mr Saakashvili, the
country could see a backlash by pro-Western activists — or “restoration” of the
old, pro-Russian system.
He advocates elections now, calling for “one
more push” to get rid of the vested interest networks that have captured
politics. Opponents and supporters alike suggest that is because elections
could open a path for him on to Ukraine’s national political stage.
Mr Yatseniuk, the current premier, made clear in
a Financial Times interview last week that he is fighting to keep his job. He argues his government has already made
Ukraine an “entirely different country” from two years ago, despite its
struggles with parliament.
One senior political power broker, however, puts
the chances of a new premier being appointed at 60 per cent. A leading
candidate is Natalie Jaresko, the US-born finance minister, who political
insiders say has held talks over the job and drawn up a “dream team” for a
technocratic government.
Ms Jaresko is highly regarded by Ukraine’s
international partners such as the IMF and the investors it urgently needs to
rebuild an economy shattered by long misrule, war with Russia in the east and
Russian trade restrictions.
But many in Kiev question whether she and a
non-political cabinet, however smart, could operate effectively in the
shark-infested waters of Ukrainian politics.
“A technocratic government? OK, excellent idea.
But how can you make sure there will be enough support in the parliament?” asks
Victoria Voytsitska, a young MP from the pro-reform Samopomich party.
Another candidate under consideration for
premier is Volodymyr Groysman, the parliament speaker. Mr Groysman is seen as
close to Mr Poroshenko, which some fear could concentrate too much power in the
president’s hands.
The parliament elected in October 2014,
initially seen as reformist, has proved more recalcitrant than expected,
blocking 60 per cent of government bills.
The assembly is partly made up of a new,
reformist political generation, particularly in the half of its seats elected
through party lists. But in the other half of the assembly, members still come
from single-mandate districts where oligarchs and other wealthy interests can
buy seats by “sponsoring” candidates and outspending everyone else.
The Poroshenko and Yatseniuk teams oppose early
elections — not least because their own popularity ratings have fallen sharply
among recession-weary and war-weary Ukrainians. They say any new parliament
would be even more fractured, with populist and radical parties gaining ground.
Serhiy Leshchenko, a leading investigative
journalist and now one of the parliament’s young anti-corruption crusaders,
suggests even a Jaresko-led government would prove only a stopgap before early
polls.
He advocates pushing for a new election law to
reform party financing and introduce so-called “open party lists”, a mechanism
allowing voters to influence which candidates get elected to represent each
party.
“We have to be planning for elections at any
moment,” he says.
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