Leave it to President Vladimir Putin of Russia to abruptly declare victory in Syria and decide to bring the “main part” of his troops home. The implications
are unclear. The announcement could turn out to be a constructive move toward a
more lasting peace settlement.
It could also be a practical necessity,
reflecting a desire not to get bogged down in the Syrian morass indefinitely.
As the United States has found, it is easier to get into wars than to get out
of them.
The official
line, reported by state media, is that Mr. Putin decided the withdrawal was
justified by the “overall completion” of Moscow’s military mission in Syria. “I
consider the mission set for the Defense Ministry and the armed forces on the
whole has been accomplished,” he said at a meeting at the Kremlin. American officials were taken aback by the
timing of the decision and were uncertain as to what it would mean for the size
and scope of Russia’s military operation and whether it signals a halt in all
Russian airstrikes.
Russia has operated a naval facility at Tartus off the
Syrian coast since the days of the Soviet Union. That base, Mr. Putin said,
will remain open. His order seemed to affect warplanes operating from a new air
base in Latakia. Since September, planes from Latakia have been bombing rebels
fighting to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad and have tipped the balance in Syria’s five-year-old war in Mr. Assad’s
favor, allowing him to reclaim territory lost to the rebels.
Russia’s intervention has also enabled Mr. Putin to
show off its military might and forced the United States to treat it as an
equal in securing stability in Syria.
One hopeful
interpretation of Mr. Putin’s decision is that it reflected a growing weariness
with protracted engagement. Senior officials in the Obama administration have
argued that Moscow’s intervention could have the unintended consequence of
drawing Russia into a quagmire and alienating Sunni Muslims across the region,
a price Mr. Putin may not be willing or able to pay.
Mr. Assad’s hold on the country, which is also under attack by the
Islamic State and other militants, is still shaky. Russia’s economy, battered
by the slump in oil prices, is expected to shrink by 1 percent this year and
faces long-term stagnation. Sanctions imposed by the European Union because of
Russia’s aggression in Ukraine are also a drag.
Mr. Putin’s announcement coincided with the resumption
in Geneva of United Nations-brokered peace talks, so the timing could be
significant. In addition to ordering stepped-up diplomatic efforts, Mr. Putin
may have been telling Mr. Assad that the time had come to drop his resistance
to a peace settlement.
Should that have been
Mr. Putin’s purpose, and should Mr. Assad be listening, there may yet be an end
in sight to the catastrophic Syrian war, which has killed hundreds of thousands
of people, displaced millions and created a lost generation of children shaped by violence and fear.
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