Russia is using the conflict in Ukraine to test new
methods of waging war against the West, the British army believes.
Russian forces are
enhancing skills that combine tanks, artillery and other heavy weapons with a
sophisticated deployment of electronic warfare to jam enemy radio signals and
render equipment such as drones redundant, according to an internal army
analysis.
President Putin’s
understanding of propaganda has also been turned into a weapon to influence the
will of populations through social media, radio stations and mass text
messaging without the need to fire a single shot.
The document, produced
by the army’s warfare branch, sets out for the first time how Britain must be
better prepared to fight a future war where everything is a weapon, from lethal
munitions and drones to Twitter and Facebook posts.
The experience of
pro-western Ukrainian forces battling undeclared Russian military units and
pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine for the past two and a half years is
used to drive home the complex and multi-layered face of a new era of Russian
warfare.
Ambiguity is key, with “little green men” dispatched
behind enemy lines to conduct sabotage missions, attack infrastructure,
intimidate police and conduct political assassinations and kidnappings to
create disorder, the analysis said.
“Low-intensity conflict
can rapidly escalate to high-intensity warfare,” according to the document,
entitled, Insights to ‘Training Smarter’ Against a Hybrid
Adversary. Russia focuses a huge amount of energy on controlling
information in eastern Ukraine to manipulate public opinion with little
challenge. “A strong narrative is maintained across open source media and use
of social media is carefully monitored,” the document said.
“Reports which do not
comply with [Russia’s] domestic narrative are quickly removed . . . Coverage of
[Russian forces killed in action] has been controlled and removed from social
media and often denied.”
Psychological and other
variations of so-called influence operations are an integral part of all
military action.
Russian-backed
separatists in Ukraine move vehicles around multiple times the night before an
attack on Ukrainian government troops to hide the true size of their force.
This is followed before dawn by a barrage of text messages containing
pro-Russia propaganda, dispatched 5 to 15 minutes before the offensive starts.
The texts are sent using
a drone to every mobile phone in the targeted area, including those of
Ukrainian soldiers. Social media is also used to try to persuade communities
and troops to support the separatists.
Simultaneously,
electronic jamming devices, some concealed in civilian vehicles, are used to
jam the radio and other communications devices of the Ukrainian military units,
making it hard for soldiers to relay messages. Any Ukrainian drones in the air
can be hijacked. Then the artillery fire starts.
The British assessment
revealed that Russia has superior artillery and other anti-armour weapons to
penetrate tanks and lightly armoured vehicles.
Ukrainian forces have
taken to riding on the outside of their trucks because the chances of surviving
a rocket or mortar strike are greater than from the inside. The British
analysis said that 80 per cent of Ukrainian casualties were from Russian
artillery.
“Light infantry vehicles
are disproportionately vulnerable to enemy direct and indirect fires,” the
assessment said. “Mechanised infantry needs MBT [main battle tank] equivalent
protection and mobility for the high- intensity battlefield.”
This observation calls
into question the utility of a long-overdue £3.5 billion programme to build
almost 600 lightly armoured Scout fighting vehicles for the army. The tracked
vehicles will only start to enter service next year.
A lack of investment in
British anti-tank weapons would also be a challenge in a war against Russia.
The analysis said that the army’s Javelin anti-tank grenade weapon is the only
missile capable of defeating Russia’s reactive armour. “In the absence of
Javelin, light infantry units are vulnerable to [being] overrun . . . by
armour,” it said.
A defence source who has
read the document said that the world faced a “paradigm shift” in the way that
war is waged. The shift is as fundamental as the moment when tanks replaced
horses and the machinegun superseded the single-shot rifle. “It is warfare
where anything is a weapon,” he said.
This includes the use of
misinformation to undermine democratic debate; cyberattacks; economic policies
to exert pressure; and the deployment of undeclared troops to create a trigger
for more conventional military intervention — as happened in Crimea.
“These Russian guys have
a wartime mentality and our politicians have a peacetime mentality,” the source
said. “We have had a holiday from history for the past 70 years and we have a
very steep learning curve.”
Tactics and technology: how they have changed
Artillery: Military and rocket barrages against Ukrainian
positions in eastern Ukraine last up to four hours. They begin with 20 to 30
minutes of small-calibre mortar fire, followed up by towed and self-propelled
artillery, and finished with munitions fired from multiple rocket launch
systems that are typically fired from inside Russia.
The initial mortar fire
is used to prompt targeted Ukrainian forces to disperse, with the heavy
artillery fire used to fix and destroy the displaced Ukrainian troops. The
BM-30 Smerch multiple rocket launcher has a 56-mile range, further than any
British army artillery system.
Russia is reported to
have fielded limited thermobaric munitions. These produce a pressure blast
similar to that created by a nuclear explosion and will kill a soldier hiding
in a trench. Britain and the United States do not field such a weapon.
Drones: Russia and pro-Russia separatists deploy drones over
eastern Ukraine in pairs, one flying above the other. If Ukrainian troops shoot
down the lower flying drone, the higher aircraft is able to identify the
location of the Ukrainians on the ground for Russian mortar and rocket fire to
be called in. Crashed drones are also able to broadcast their location upon
landing, again drawing Russian indirect fire.
Evidence from Ukrainian
troops suggests a 15-minute response time from when a Russian drone identifies
a target and the artillery strike. Russia is skilled at hijacking Ukrainian
drones, diverting them off course or bringing them down. The analysis found
that the British army has no air defence capability to counter low-flying
drones.
Influence and psychological operations: Russia-backed separatists move vehicles around multiple
times the night before an attack to hide the true size of their force. This
psychological operation is followed before dawn with a barrage of text messages
containing propaganda, dispatched five to 15 minutes before the offensive
starts. The texts are sent using a drone to every mobile phone in the targeted
area.
Twitter and Facebook are
also used to try to persuade communities and troops to support the separatists.
Entire Ukrainian units have received such messages, designed to damage morale.
Russia has sent threats via text message to the families of Ukrainian troops.
Misinformation about what is happening on the ground is fed to radio stations
and websites.
Electronic warfare: Electronic warfare
is used to hijack drones and force them to crash or abort a mission. Electronic
jamming devices - some concealed in civilian vehicles - are used to jam the
radio and other communications devices of the Ukrainian military units, making
it hard for soldiers to relay messages. Any Ukrainian drones in the air can be
hijacked.
Russia uses “GPS
spoofing” to confuse Ukrainian troops on the ground. British soldiers are told
to practise map and compass-reading skills. Electronic warfare is a part of all
Russian military operations. A number of radioelectronic warfare stations have
been sighted in eastern Ukraine.
Sniper: Russia has deployed acoustic devices across eastern
Ukraine that are able to find the location of Ukrainian snipers by listening to
the sound that the weapon makes. The device enables pro-Russian separatists to
attack sniper positions. Ukrainian forces have begun to use silencers to
counter this threat.
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