Rumour has it that there are to be changes at the top imminently (within 7 – 10 days).
There are several choices in
guessing who is likely to move and/or move on when rumours of changes at the
top circulate. Such rumour has to include possibility of
the eventual release of Boris Lozhkin.
It has been some
months since the blog last mentioned Head of the Presidential
Administration, Boris Lozhkin. That entry highlighting the desire of Mr
Lozhkin to leave his current role.
“…….the desire to get out of
the Presidential Administration remains – back to business beckons.
Why he remains in post now is
perhaps not due to his desire to remain, but due to a lack of desire to release
him as Head of the Presidential Administration. Candidates to replace him are few (to be
charitable)…..”
To be blunt there remains but
few capable candidates to replace him that enjoy the trust of the President –
and loyalty to the President seems to be an attribute far more important than
that of ability to carry out the role effectively if past appointments are any
indication.
The most obvious replacement
is Mr Lozhkin’s current Deputy, Vitaliy Kovalchuk – but in appointing Mr
Kovalchuk the President stands a significant risk of seriously irking both
Prime Minister Groisman and Mayor of Kyiv, Vitaly Klitschko, neither of which
are admirers of Mr Kovalchuk. (To be frank he has very few admirers.)
Another option would be the
current Ukrainian Ambassador to the USA, Valeriy Chaliy, formerly the Foreign
Affairs Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration – however, Mr Chaliy was
sent to Washington not only for his ability to represent Ukraine in a capital
that Ukraine has to influence, but as stated when he was appointed there may
have been other drivers for his appointment – “Another possibility is
(and there will surely be an element of this, for it is the nature of the
political animal) that Mr Chaly had thus far refused the position much
preferring to have the eyes and ears of the President on a daily basis.
Simply put, it has taken this long to pressure/ease him into accepting
the role.
Let’s be quite honest, few give up their seat at the top of the
presidential domestic political table for a position abroad, for their daily
influence dwindles over time whilst their replacement’s influence grows.
Mr Chaly is young (45) –
capable and ambitious. It may therefore be that he has been sent to
Washington to “makes friends” and gain traction within “the beltway” with an
eye upon future positions far greater than that held held until yesterday
within the Presidential Administration.
Alternatively, because he is
young, ambitious and intelligent, he may have been moved from the centre quite
deliberately for more self-serving reasons within the centre of gravity, rather
than for reasons of “growing” Mr Chaly’s “western” influence for future
domestic political use.
A “horizontal promotion” away
from decision/policy making, or a deliberate move to enhance the résumé of a
prodigy?”
Another understudy of Mr
Lozhkin within the Presidential Administration for a while, is the current
Chairman of Kharkiv Regional State Administration Igor Rainin, certainly the
least likely to make waves within or without the Presidential Administration if
appointed – and possibly the easiest to replace if exiting his current role.
The very private figure
of Makar Pasenyuk remains a possibility should he want to enter the
political fray. He has the trust of the President.
Mr Lozhkin however, may not
yet be fully allowed to leave the Presidential conclave despite his desire to
do so. The President is not surrounded by a large number of trusted and
capable people (in that order) allowing for Mr Lozhkin to simply walk out of
the door.
Mr Lozhkin’s desire to return
to the business world and leave presidential politics behind may yet be
tempered by an appointment designed to keep him somewhat close and at
presidential beck and call. An appointment as Head of the National
Investment Council could very well await him, thus allowing his return to
business and overt exit from daily politics, but remaining the head of an entity
created by Presidential Decree, and thus at beck and call of the President.
Further, there is also
(reliable) noise stating that Dmitry Shimkiv and Alexy Fildatov are seeking
exit from the Presidential Administration too – undoubtedly their desire to leave
will increase should Mr Lozhkin finally be released.
(To be fair to these men, none
would have chosen the roles that befell them following the events of 2014, and
none would have expected or wanted to remain in those roles for long. In
some cases, more than 2 years on, the desire to return to their previous
careers is entirely understandable.)
There is also the declared
intention to retire with effect from 1st September of Chief Military Prosecutor
Anatoli Matios whom a loyal replacement will also have to be found. (A
reader may ponder why at 47 years of age retirement is chosen – perhaps the new
e-declaration requirements for public officials have something to do with it?
Perhaps he wants some time off and will enter politics at the next
elections – his sister, the gifted writer Maria Matios is a Poroshenko MP.)
Perhaps there are other
possible moves at the very top being pondered and that will be actioned within
the next 10 days, which thus far escape the watchful eye – thus the
possibilities/probabilities listed above will prove false prophecy. There
may be a surprise ahead? (Although unlikely under a predictable manager
such as President Poroshenko.)
Whatever the case, rumour of
imminent change at the very top is strong – and if change is to occur it seems
likely to happen prior to the return of the Verkhovna Rada and the next
parliamentary session.
Original
No comments:
Post a Comment