President Putin and Petro Poroshenko at the start of talks in Minsk in 2014 to secure a ceasefire
SERGEI BONDARENKO/REUTERS
In the tiny village of Zaitseve, near the eastern
Ukrainian border with Russia, the trenches of the opposing sides are so close
that soldiers shout abuse at each other and blast their national anthems across
a no man’s land that is barely 100 metres wide.
“We play Ukraine’s
anthem on our speakers after sunset and bait them into firing,” said a
20-year-old Kiev conscript whose nom de guerre is The Godfather. “They blast
out Russia’s anthem too, and we fire back.”
This is the latest front
line in the war between Russian-backed rebels desperate to grab more land from
east Ukraine and the army determined to stop them. The heaviest fighting in
Ukraine since the ceasefire was announced in February last year was recorded
last month. According to the Ukrainian military, 173 government soldiers were
wounded and 42 killed; more than double the June death toll.
The Kiev government says
that separatists have violated the ceasefire more than 1,300 times this month,
using weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements such as tanks, mortars and
152mm-calibre artillery. It accuses Russia of sending hundreds of military
convoys across the border this year, with armoured vehicles, multiple-
rocket-launch systems and ammunition caches dispatched in recent weeks.
Surrounded by incoming
and outgoing fire, Ukrainian servicemen patrol Zaitseve, a war-ravaged village
at the heart of the intractable crisis. Separatist and government forces
control opposing sections of this divided community; a microcosm of the wider
schism unleashed in Ukraine by revolution, the annexation of Crimea and
Russia’s subsequent clandestine invasion.
The battle-scarred Mayorova Street in Zaitseve marks
the perilous boundary of government-held territory. Forming a de facto border
between Ukraine and its separatist east, this cratered lane is lined by
bombed-out bungalows, trees shredded by gunfire and gates riddled with bullet
holes.
Ivan Polyanski, 62, is
one of the few civilians who have stayed, even as his neighbours’ homes have
been commandeered by Ukrainian soldiers. Before the war, his two-storey home on
this modest street was the envy of his neighbours, but now its roof lies ruined
after being hit by a recent barrage of 122mm mortar shells. The weapons were
banned by the ceasefire agreed in Minsk last February, but the deal has little
relevance here.
“How can I rebuild this?
They’ve destroyed everything I have,” he said as he lifted rubble from his
garden and dumped it in a nearby ditch. His family fled but he refused to leave
his home. “Now I just live in the cellar and wait for the war to end.”
A battered
four-wheel-drive vehicle tore down the potholed track. Inside was a bloodied,
grinning conscript, high on morphine, who had been shot in the groin — another
casualty in a war where more than 10,000 have died.
On Friday, two days
after Ukraine marked a quarter of a century of independence from Russia, its
soldiers had to dig in to fend off a new assault by separatist fighters, most
thought to be Chechens deployed by President Putin’s loyal ally, Ramzan Kadyrov.
Locals said they heard the Russian-backed fighters shouting “Allahu akbar” (God is greatest) as they shot
from their trenches.
Anton, 31, a wiry
Ukrainian fighter nicknamed Sedmoy — The Seventh, the date of his wife’s
birthday — said: “Independence day was OK. Shooting, shelling, the usual. We
were given some medals then barbecued shashlik in a dugout. We’ll have the real
party when the war ends. We didn’t get true independence in 1991. We’re still
fighting for it.”
A new truce could be
agreed within days. Diplomats are lobbying Kiev, Moscow and separatist leaders
to salvage the discredited peace deal and halt the relentless cycle of strikes
and counterstrikes.
The peace-brokers are
trying to use September 1, the day on which Ukrainian children go back to
school, as an incentive. Leonid Kuchma, a former president and now Ukraine’s
representative at negotiations with Russia, said: “All children of Donetsk and
Lugansk regions have a right for care and security. That is why Ukraine insists
on a complete ceasefire.”
Martin Sajdik, a senior
Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe envoy to the peace talks,
called for “a permanent ceasefire starting at midnight on August 31”.
A similar deal was
imposed after a bloody summer last year but it unravelled within months. For
many, a long-lasting peace remains remote. “The so-called ‘agreements’ are not
working,” Alexander Khara, a Ukrainian analyst, said. “From a legal point of
view, they are null and void.”
Sergiy Matseiko, 56, a
Ukrainian battalion commander, co-ordinates his 500 men scattered across the
mined wastelands around Zaitseve, using a map on his tablet to direct fire.
“The division of Ukraine
is totally artificial. Once our land was divided between Russia, Poland and
Austria-Hungary. But we always aspired to a single state. We have one culture,
with different tints. We have one nation, with many nationalities. In this room
there are five men with different roots, but we all want one thing — a single,
united Ukraine.”
Kremlin uses conflict to divert attention of voters Both President
Putin and President Poroshenko stand to gain from the upsurge in violence in
eastern Ukraine (Michael Binyon writes).
Each is blaming the
other for sabotaging the peace talks scheduled for next month. Each is
frustrated at the impasse and is manoeuvring for advantage. And each is using
the renewed tensions to bolster his personal standing at home at a time of
rising discontent over falling living standards, economic stagnation and
corruption.
At least 13 Ukrainian
soldiers have been killed in recent clashes with separatists. Opposition to Mr
Poroshenko is rising, corruption remains high, the economy shows no growth and
the support of the West is faltering.
Mr Putin is also under
domestic pressure. The elections for the 450-seat Duma on September 18 come
amid signs of voter indifference and the unpopularity of the ruling United
Russia party.
Russians, like
Ukrainians, are angered by corruption and alarmed by economic recession. And
not everyone is convinced that the ban on Russian athletes at the Rio Olympics
was solely the result of an American-led conspiracy.
As he has before, Mr
Putin is seizing the initiative to divert blame from his government and point
the finger at Ukraine and its western backers. Yet while his personal
popularity remains high, his ability to use this issue to rally patriotic
sentiment may be falling, with recent polls showing diminishing public interest
in Ukraine.
The increase in tension
in the region comes after Mr Putin accused Ukraine of sending saboteurs into
Russian-controlled Crimea and warned Kiev of the consequences.
Russia is now engaged in
a huge week-long military exercise on the borders of Ukraine involving about
40,000 troops. Russian commentators have said that it is intended to send a
message to hawks in Ukraine.
Escalation on one side
produces an immediate response on the other. Ukraine has deployed 140 extra units
to counter what it sees as Russian preparations to grab more territory.
Russia in turn has
accused Mr Poroshenko of refusing to implement the provisions of the Minsk
agreement, the basis of the shaky ceasefire. Mr Putin says that he sees no
point in attending the planned talks with the leaders of Ukraine, France and
Germany.
Postponing the talks
suits both sides since neither is ready to make concessions and military
tensions yield domestic gains. But the danger is that skirmishes could escalate
to full-scale fighting, with incalculable international consequences.
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