BY
Today Berlin
will host an informal meeting of legal experts from the “Normandy Four” – also
in attendance will be the Venice Commission – the aim is to explain to The
Kremlin that the collective interpretation is that the proposed amendments to
the Ukrainian Constitution regarding “decentralisation” fall squarely within
the terms of the Minsk II agreement – despite the said amendments falling far
short of what the Kremlin hoped to achieve via its Donbas adventure and the
interpretation of Minsk II that the Kremlin has tried to force upon the
“Normandy Four”.
The Kremlin of course already
knows that the proposed Ukrainian Constitutional amendments fall within the
Minsk II agreement. The entire point of the dramatically increased
violence in the Donbas, and immense Kremlin diplomatic effort to have Germany
and France pressure Kyiv into more concessions without any Kremlin reciprocity
reflects an evermore frustrated Kremlin.
At the very least it has resulted
in Germany calling the “Normandy Four” Berlin meeting on 24th August.
“Taking
into account the understanding of our Normandy Four partners that amendments to
the Constitution suggested by Ukraine are in line with the Minsk agreements,
the goal of the meeting is to explain legal aspects of the constitutional
amendments to Russia.
As the people are
the only source of power and holder of sovereignty in Ukraine. The people
execute their power directly and via representative agencies, and the decision
on any amendments to the Constitution is made by the Verkhovna Rada. According
to the Constitution, the right to establish and amend the constitutional order in
Ukraine belongs only to the people and can’t be usurped by the state, its
agencies or officials. Moreover – by a foreign state.
We’ll talk solely
in the legal sphere on constitutional amendments, preliminary approved by the
parliament and their being in line with the logic of the Minsk agreements, and
thus the way to peace. But no one in Ukraine will adjust the Constitution to Russia’s
wrongful understanding of the agreements.” – was the statement regarding today’s Berlin legal conclave.
(The Ukrainian representatives
will be Serhiy Holovaty and Roman Bezsmertny.)
Fairly robust rhetoric designed,
in short, to inform the Kremlin that there is no further room to try and frame
interpretations their way, or that will further undermine what has already been
conceded by way of concessions in previously weak negotiations.
This statement made
simultaneously with a statement from NATO – a key paragraph being – “Russia has a special responsibility to find a political
solution. Any attempt by the Russian-backed separatists to take over more of
Ukraine’s territory would be unacceptable to the international community.”
This infers more costs to the
Kremlin for any further loss of territory.
The problem with this statement
is that since Minsk II was signed Ukraine has continuously lost territory – a
village here, a few kilometers of terrain there, the occasional town etc.
This should have been unacceptable to the international community
already, but this continuous territorial creep has garnered no response.
Therefore so far, the “unacceptable”
has in fact been acceptable – and de facto accepted. The rhetoric empty.
Nevertheless it is seemingly
designed to reinforce the aforementioned Berlin pre-messaging/framing – and
perhaps post-Berlin outcomes. The message being that the current Kremlin
sponsored up-tick in violence will not gain further concessions, and Kremlin
sponsored territorial punishment will not go without costs when no further
meaningful concessions are forthcoming.
Whether such messaging will be
duly noted remains to be seen. Russian “humanitarian conveys” will be
much more frequent with the increased speed at which ammunition is being
expended by its troops and proxies in the Donbas.
A “hot” to “very hot” front line
may well be ahead for the remainder of the year.
There are key political dates
within Ukraine between now and year end which will be both presaged and
latterly punished by the Kremlin when it does not get desired outcomes.
Front line “heat” will be accompanied by yet hotter political, diplomatic
and economic pressure as important political dates come and go.
Few should be surprised that the
1st January EU-Ukraine DCFTA implementation date will also be accompanied by
something approaching a synchronised (almost) complete ban of Ukrainian imports
by the Kremlin – and a Donbas “winter offensive” of sorts – to express its
displeasure.
Kyiv needs to hold its political
and diplomatic nerve – and the Ukrainian military hold the line. The rest
of the year will be characterised as much – if not more so – by a battle of
governance as it will be a seemingly ever “hot” front line.
Nevertheless, in attempting to
preset the stage/pre-frame the 24th August Berlin meeting in a way that implies
limited scope for yet further pocketed concessions for the Kremlin, a very very
“hot” front line can be expected this weekend.
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