As Nord Stream 2 slowly moves toward becoming a reality – and it will become a reality – much has been said about what will happen to Ukraine as a transit nation, not only economically and the purported $2 billion losses in transit fees, but also from a national security perspective. In some quarters the argument goes, that having removed Ukraine from its transits routes, Russia could then effectively start a major war with Ukraine without disrupting its gas supply routes and the European nations would be less inclined to do anything.
However, even with Nord Stream 1 and 2, notwithstanding any southern route becoming a reality (be it Turk Stream or whatever), it is difficult to see a situation whereby Ukraine will not be required to transport some Russian gas – albeit in radically reduced quantities. Whether European gas demand will rise, or whether it has plateaued, assuredly European production of gas will diminish, and thus gas import demand will grow.
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