By LAURENCE NORMAN
Rejection of trade pact in the Netherlands could
boost ‘Brexit’ backers in U.K.
The fallout from
the Dutch vote rejecting the European Union’s trade and political agreement
with Ukraine could have ramifications for the entire bloc, even though it isn’t
likely to derail the accord itself.
The “no” camp’s
clear victory in Wednesday’s referendum further knocks the confidence of a
28-member bloc already besieged with economic, political and security crises,
and could hamper its efforts to reorient the former Soviet republic of Ukraine
toward the West.
More broadly, the result could provide a boost to the exit camp in the
U.K., which is holding a much bigger referendum on EU membership in June. It also is a blow to Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is
trailing the anti-EU and anti-immigration Party of Freedom in most opinion
polls, with national elections due next year.
Party for
Freedom leader Geert Wilders echoed the views of other anti-Brussels
firebrands, calling the vote “the beginning of the end of the EU.”
On Thursday,
Europe’s leaders were in damage-control mode.
Mr. Rutte asked for time to reach out to Dutch lawmakers and regional
partners before deciding on his next steps. “It is clear that ratification
cannot just proceed as if nothing has happened,” the government said.
European officials in Brussels stressed the EU-Ukraine agreement
remained provisionally in effect and pledged not to abandon Ukraine.
Russia, which has long sought to scuttle the pact, said the vote
represented a European rejection of Ukraine’s pro-Western political class.
The collateral damage from the vote
could extend to Ukraine’s bid to win visa-free accessfor
its 40 million citizens to the EU, one of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s biggest priorities.
That move needs backing by all EU governments, including from the Netherlands.
The vote could even complicate the EU’s deal with Turkey to help stem
the continent’s migration crisis. That deal is premised on the EU speeding work
on Turkey’s EU membership bid and, meanwhile, reaching a visa-free travel deal
for Turks. Both are likely to spark opposition in the Netherlands.
Mr. Rutte has shown in recent years he’s willing to say no to Brussels.
His government was key to keeping Romania and Bulgaria outside Europe’s
border-free travel zone, known as Schengen.
Yet the biggest fallout could be on the U.K.’s June 23 referendum.
U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron brushed
off suggestions the Dutch vote would boost the Brexit camp, saying the issues
were completely different.
Yet UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, who is campaigning for a
British exit, predicted that the Dutch vote may provide the “hors d’oeuvre” for
the British “main course.”
Speaking in the Netherlands this week before the vote, he said a Dutch
“no” would encourage British voters who dislike the EU but worry about Britain
striking out on its own.
“A no vote in this referendum will send a big message to the British
electorate that we are not alone in thinking something has fundamentally gone
wrong in the direction of the European Union,” he said.
Amid such uncertainty, the future of the EU-Ukraine deal itself looks
relatively secure.
All EU governments agreed in 2014 to provisionally apply their part of
the deal, pending formal ratification. The final hurdle was in the Netherlands.
Some in Ukraine immediately blamed the rejection on Mr. Poroshenko, a
confectionery tycoon who was widely criticized at home when a massive leak of
documents from a Panama-based law firm indicated he had set up an offshore company
while president. A spokesman has said none of the holding company’s accounts
held more than €2,000 ($2,278).
Others in Ukraine said the main motivations for “no” voters were
internal Dutch and EU issues and the president wouldn’t be too badly burned.
“This is a vote against Brussels, not Kiev,” saidVolodymyr Fesenko, a political scientist at the
Kiev-based Penta center.
Brussels has no imminent deadline for completing ratification.
One option, said Jan Techau, Director of Carnegie Europe, would be for EU
leaders to attach a statement to the accord asserting that it doesn’t pave the
way for Ukraine to join the bloc—a concern of some Dutch voters.
The EU could also offer the Dutch an opt-out from some political
chapters while leaving the centerpiece, which slashes tariffs, in place. Even
if the Dutch government objected to that, trade deals don’t require unanimity
in the EU.
“There needs to be some sort of way of accommodating what just
happened,” said Mr. Techau.
But reopening the accord could delay ratification by two or three years,
said Hylke Dijkstra, assistant professor of political science at the
Netherlands’ Maastricht University.
It would also give Russia more time to try to block the deal.
—Maarten van Tartwijk in Amsterdam and Laura Mills in Moscow
contributed to this article.
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