By Brian Whitmore
They're already using the
Russian currency. They may soon be issued Russian passports. And in a couple of
months, they plan to vote in a stage-managed referendum to formally join
Russia.
It sure is beginning to look a
lot like an annexation in Donbas. Or at least a well-orchestrated bluff.
Separatist officials in the
self-styled Luhansk People's Republic this week formally made the Russian ruble their main currency.
The ruble, of course, has long
been in circulation in the breakaway eastern Ukrainian enclave.
But effective September 1, it will be the official
monetary unit for taxes, the budget, wages, pensions, and other social
benefits.
The goal, separatist officials
say, is to bring the territory fully into the ruble zone and eliminate the
hryvnya.
The move followed
announcements that separatist-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts will hold a referendum on uniting with Russia
in late October or early November.
And this all comes amid persistent press reports claiming that the Kremlin is mulling the option of issuing Russian passports to residents of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics.
And this all comes amid persistent press reports claiming that the Kremlin is mulling the option of issuing Russian passports to residents of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics.
We've of course seen this
movie before -- in Transdniester, in South Ossetia, and in Abkhazia. But if in
those cases, forcing a frozen conflict and creating a Russian protectorate was
part of an offensive strategy meant to exert pressure on Moldova and Georgia,
respectively.
But in eastern Ukraine, they
are a sign that Moscow is losing the diplomatic and political tug-of-war that
is the Donbas endgame -- and losing it badly.
And that is because Russia's
goal in eastern Ukraine -- at least in the small chunk of territory it now
controls - has never been annexation or the establishment of a de facto
protectorate.
Moscow doesn't want the
separatist territories separated from the rest of Ukraine, but integrated into
it.
The Kremlin wants Kyiv to
carry the burden of reconstructing the region, and it wants Moscow's proxies to
act as a fifth column to disrupt Kyiv's westward drive.
But the authorities in Kyiv
aren't letting this happen.
"Ukraine's position is
that it will not play according to the Kremlin's script in Donbas," Vladimir Gorbulin, a former secretary of
Ukraine's National Security Council, wrote in NZ recently. "The
reintegration of Donbas into Ukraine in Russia's terms will not
happen,"
MIsplaced Fury
Sure, Ukrainian nationalists
are up in arms about proposed amendments to the constitution that will devolve
power to the regions and stipulate that a vaguely defined special status will
be granted to the separatist-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Those changes, part of the
Minsk cease-fire agreement, passed their initial reading in parliament this
week, sparking the worst violence Kyiv has seen since the Euromaidan revolution
when far-right protesters hurled grenades at police, killing three.
But if you look closely at
what is going on, it is clear that the nationalists' fury is misguided.
President Petro Poroshenko and
his government are obviously slow-walking the process and have no intention of
granting the separatist-held territories special status any time soon.
Kyiv is insisting that the
pro-Moscow rebels disarm, Russia withdraw its troops from Donbas, and that
separatist-controlled areas of the border be returned to Ukraine's control
before there can be any discussion about the territories' status.
Poroshenko says the
decentralization amendments won't even come up for a final vote until the end of the
year.
"Whether or not the
Kremlin removes its troops, equipment and proxies from the Donbas or not -- and
one has to suspect not -- the final decentralization vote does not seem likely
to occur anytime before Easter 2016," political analyst and blogger Nikolai Holmov wrote recently.
Holmov adds that it's highly
unlikely they will pass with the required super-majority as long as the clause
about the rebel regions' status is included.
And what about that clause? It
simply states that "The particulars of local government in certain
districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are to be determined by a special
law."
In other words, even if the
amendments pass, the status of these territories won't be determined until an
entirely new law passes.
This is clearly going to take
a while -- which is the point.
The Poroshenko government is
being careful to tick all the boxes on the Minsk accords, while at the same
time running the clock out until the end of the year, when Moscow is obliged to
fulfil its end -- returning the border to Ukraine's control.
Unpalatable
Options
All of this puts Russia in a
very tough spot.
The Kremlin had been heavily
lobbying the West to pressure Ukraine to grant the separatist areas autonomy
before it ceded the border, but these efforts appear to have failed.
This became apparent,
according to political analyst Taras Chornovil, following Poroshenko's meeting
with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande in
Berlin on August 24.
"There was a breakthrough
moment in Berlin," Chornovil told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "Germany and
France for the first time admitted openly that they support the Ukrainian side
in its interpretation of the Minsk agreements."
Moscow can't force Ukraine to
take the rebel-held territories back on its terms. And this leaves it with
three unpalatable options: restart the war, annex the territories, or freeze
the conflict and turn them into a protectorate.
The moves to formally
introduce the ruble in the separatist regions, the threats to hold a referendum
on joining Russia, and the noise about issuing Russian passports are a
last-ditch effort to pressure Kyiv. And Kyiv isn't budging.
Which leaves Moscow stuck
taking its least worst option: call it a soft annexation.
And this removes the last bit
of leverage Russia has over Kyiv.
"Ukraine will never now
be a gray neutral territory between East and West," Ukrainian political
analyst Serhiy Taran told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "Either we won't
emerge alive from this hell or else we will emerge very strong. I am convinced
it will be the latter, if only because this is what everyone except Russia
wants."
No comments:
Post a Comment