Friday, September 25, 2015

Q&A: What Military Equipment and Troops Has Russia Sent to Syria?


Alleged sightings of Russian military gear, reports of Russian servicemen being coerced into fighting a secret war abroad accompanied by vehement denials by the Kremlin that Moscow is engaged in covert operations on another country's territory—sounds like a familiar story. But while the Ukraine conflict is currently enjoying a rare and relative de-escalation of violence, Russian President Vladimir Putin's government is once again faced with accusations that his army is preparing for a covert military intervention, this time in Syria.
The White House has said it is "closely monitoring" allegations of a Russian military build up in Syria, after U.K. and Israeli media outlets published different accounts of Russian soldiers, jets and kit allegedly arriving in Syria. On Tuesday the increase in diplomatic tension over the allegations against the Kremlin prompted the influential Russian state newspaper Pravda to ask the question "Will the third World War start in Latakia," referring to an area on Syria's coastline.
With that in mind, Newsweek has compiled a few frequently asked questions about the recent increase in reports of Russian military presence in Syria, as well as some answers.
Q: Is Russia's military presence in Syria new?

A: No. Moscow's presence in Syria dates back to the 1970s, during the days of the Soviet Union when the two countries agreed a long-term lease for a Russian military facility in the city of Tartus in 1971, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti's profile of Russian military facilities abroad, based on official data. Notably, the official classification of the facility is not one of a naval base, but rather as a point of material and technical support, however its functions include serving as a headquarters of Russian naval exercises in the region, as a barracks and as a depot for arms. In 2013, Russia conducted its first massive naval exercise off the Syrian coast since the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to business news channel RBC, and several have followed since.
"The Russian side has never hidden the fact that it is supplying military technology to the official Syrian authorities in support of their fight against terror," Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's spokesperson said earlier this month. Moscow has also never concealed the existence of its facility in Tartus, with the Ministry of Defence openly publicizing its deployment of ships to and from the Syrian coastline.
Q: What is the evidence of a military build-up?
A: In late August Syrian state television broadcast footage of what appeared to be Russian BTR armored vehicles deployed on the frontline in the Syrian governorate of Latakia with what sounds like Russian being spoken in the background on several occasions. Rebel sources online also began circulating images they said were of Russian-made drones and jets above Idlib.
In early September, Russian and Ukrainian bloggers began sharing selfies and mobile phone photos posted on social media of what appeared to be Russian marines in Syria. While some appeared to be in Tartus, the indicated location for others was in governorates of Syria where Russia has no facilities such as Latakia or Homs. Some of the photos also appeared to show that the Russian troops in Syria were equipped for combat and stationed near battle zones, as opposed to in training camps.
Last Sunday, rebel sources shared a video showing what appear to be Russian-made Ilyushin cargo planes and Sukhoi attack aircraft above Homs.
The Russian media has also been busy seeking out evidence for Russian reinforcement in Syria, with popular news site Gazeta publishing an interview with a soldier who believes he was on course to be sent to Syria after being trained for a long deployment to a "warm country." Neither he nor his colleagues were told where they would be stationed but they were taught about the need to strengthen defences at the Tartus facility. On the day that the story was published, the military district where the unnamed soldier reportedly served, denied it planned to deploy any troops outside the district or against their will.
Earlier this week, independent Russian daily Kommersant reported that a serviceman stationed in Tartus told the newspaper that 1,700 Russian "military experts" were now at the Syrian supply point. If true, that would be a large increase from the 50 instructors state media reported were there in 2010.
On Tuesday, defence analysts IHS Jane published satellite images of two Assad strongholds in Latakia over time, showing what it claims is a Russian fortification of Syrian military positions, expanding the capacity for camps to house troops and the arsenal of vehicles.
Q: What does Russia say about all this?
A: Russia confirms that it supplies the Syrian government with military technology, but denies that Russian troops are involved in combat. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs' spokesperson said earlier this month that Russia has never hidden they have sent military technology to Assad. Since the start of the Syrian conflict, the party line from the Ministry of Defence and the Kremlin has been clear that Russia's technical support does not go as far as involving troops in fighting. In 2012 the navy clarified that none of its ships on the Syrian coast were taking part in combat and then denied media reports of a Russian serviceman being killed on the frontlines by interviewing him on the state army channel Zvezda. As recently as last month Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told state media that the use of Russian troops on Syria was "out of the question." Recently, however, the Russian position appears to have grown more open as Putin called the reports of Russian intervention "premature" earlier this month and Peskov said Moscow would consider any request from Damascus to send troops. The Russian president met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and top Israeli generals in Moscow on Monday where they discussed "a potential coordinated action" in Syria, Peskov confirmed on Thursday.
Q: What do experts think about it?
A: Igor Sutyagin, Russian military expert at U.K. defence think tank Royal United Service Institute, says "the situation in Syria is becoming more obvious."
"The personnel referred to by Kommersant and other media - they are not instructors. You cannot imagine between 1,700 to 3,000 instructors. One instructor is enough to teach a platoon, which is 25 people," Sutyagin says "If you can train 3,000 platoons and 27 platoons are a battalion and 81 platoons is a regiment, the Russian force in Syria will be able to train 13 regiments of the Syrian armed forces. There are not enough trainees to be trained by these all instructors."
"Certainly there are some of these units which will include military engineers which are there for construction but at least one battalion of marines have already leaked their selfies on social media with the locations of where they are," he says referring to some of the photos.
Q: What do U.S. officials say?
A: According to the BBC, Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters this week, "For the moment, it is the judgement of our military and experts that the level and type represents basically force protection."
Former senior general David Petraeus, however, sounded more concerned in testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday. "Russia's recent military escalation in Syria is a further reminder that when the U.S. does not take the initiative, others will fill the vacuum, often in ways that are harmful to our interest," Petraeus said, according to CNN. Petraeus said that Russia's moves in Syria are designed to preserve Russian influence in the Middle East, adding, "I think that what Vladimir Putin would like to do is resurrect the Russian empire."




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