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Alleged sightings of Russian military
gear, reports of Russian servicemen being coerced into fighting a secret war
abroad accompanied by vehement denials by the Kremlin that Moscow is engaged in
covert operations on another country's territory—sounds like a familiar story.
But while the Ukraine conflict is currently enjoying a rare and relative
de-escalation of violence, Russian President Vladimir Putin's government is once
again faced
with accusations that his army is preparing for a covert military
intervention, this
time in Syria.
The White House has said it is "closely
monitoring"
allegations of a Russian military build up in Syria, after U.K. and Israeli
media outlets published different accounts of Russian soldiers, jets and kit
allegedly arriving in Syria. On Tuesday the increase in diplomatic tension over
the allegations against the Kremlin prompted the influential Russian state
newspaper Pravda to ask the question "Will the third World War
start in Latakia," referring to an area on Syria's coastline.
With that in mind, Newsweek has compiled a few frequently asked
questions about the recent increase in reports of Russian military presence in
Syria, as well as some answers.
Q: Is Russia's military presence in Syria new?
A: No.
Moscow's presence in Syria dates back to the 1970s, during the days of the
Soviet Union when the two countries agreed a long-term lease for a Russian
military facility in the city of Tartus in 1971, according to Russian state
news agency RIA Novosti's profile of Russian military facilities abroad,
based on official data. Notably, the official classification of the facility is
not one of a naval base, but rather as a point of material and technical
support, however its functions include serving as a headquarters of Russian
naval exercises in the region, as a barracks and as a depot for arms. In 2013,
Russia conducted its first massive naval exercise off the Syrian coast since
the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to business news channel RBC, and several have followed since.
"The Russian side has never hidden the fact that
it is supplying military technology to the official Syrian authorities in
support of their fight against terror," Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's
spokesperson said earlier
this month.
Moscow has also never concealed the existence of its facility in Tartus, with
the Ministry of Defence openly publicizing its deployment of ships to and from the Syrian coastline.
Q: What is the evidence of a military build-up?
A: In
late August Syrian state television broadcast footage of what appeared to be Russian BTR armored vehicles
deployed on the frontline in the Syrian governorate of Latakia with what sounds
like Russian being spoken in the background on several occasions. Rebel sources
online also began circulating images they said were of Russian-made drones and
jets above Idlib.
In early September, Russian and Ukrainian bloggers
began sharing selfies and mobile phone photos posted on social media of what appeared to be Russian
marines in Syria. While some appeared to be in Tartus, the indicated location
for others was in governorates of Syria where Russia has no facilities such as
Latakia or Homs. Some of the photos also appeared to show that the Russian
troops in Syria were equipped for combat and stationed near battle zones, as
opposed to in training camps.
Last Sunday, rebel sources shared a video showing what appear to be Russian-made Ilyushin cargo
planes and Sukhoi attack aircraft above Homs.
The Russian media has also been busy seeking out
evidence for Russian reinforcement in Syria, with popular news site Gazeta publishing an interview with a soldier who believes he
was on course to be sent to Syria after being trained for a long deployment to
a "warm country." Neither he nor his colleagues were told where they
would be stationed but they were taught about the need to strengthen defences
at the Tartus facility. On the day that the story was published, the military
district where the unnamed soldier reportedly served, denied it planned to
deploy any troops outside the district or against their will.
Earlier this week, independent Russian daily Kommersant reported that a serviceman stationed in Tartus told
the newspaper that 1,700 Russian "military experts" were now at the
Syrian supply point. If true, that would be a large increase from the 50
instructors state media reported were there in 2010.
On Tuesday, defence analysts IHS Jane published satellite images of two Assad strongholds in Latakia over time, showing what it
claims is a Russian fortification of Syrian military positions, expanding the
capacity for camps to house troops and the arsenal of vehicles.
Q: What does Russia say about all this?
A: Russia
confirms that it supplies the Syrian government with military technology, but
denies that Russian troops are involved in combat. The Ministry of Foreign
Affairs' spokesperson said earlier this month that Russia has never hidden they
have sent military technology to Assad. Since the start of the Syrian conflict,
the party line from the Ministry of Defence and the Kremlin has been clear that
Russia's technical support does not go as far as involving troops in fighting.
In 2012 the navy clarified that none of its ships on the Syrian coast were taking part in combat and
then denied media reports of a Russian serviceman being killed on the
frontlines by interviewing him on the state army channel Zvezda. As recently as last month Kremlin spokesman Dmitry
Peskov told state
media that
the use of Russian troops on Syria was "out of the question."
Recently, however, the Russian position appears to have grown more open as
Putin called the reports of Russian intervention "premature" earlier
this month and Peskov said Moscow would consider any request from Damascus to send troops. The Russian
president met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and top Israeli
generals in Moscow on Monday where they discussed "a
potential coordinated action" in Syria, Peskov confirmed on Thursday.
Q: What do experts think about it?
A: Igor
Sutyagin, Russian military expert at U.K. defence think tank Royal United
Service Institute, says "the situation in Syria is becoming more
obvious."
"The personnel referred to by
Kommersant and other media - they are not instructors. You cannot imagine
between 1,700 to 3,000 instructors. One instructor is enough to teach a
platoon, which is 25 people," Sutyagin says "If you can train 3,000
platoons and 27 platoons are a battalion and 81 platoons is a regiment, the
Russian force in Syria will be able to train 13 regiments of the Syrian armed
forces. There are not enough trainees to be trained by these all
instructors."
"Certainly there are some of these units
which will include military engineers which are there for construction but at
least one battalion of marines have already leaked their selfies on social
media with the locations of where they are," he says referring to some of
the photos.
Q: What do U.S. officials say?
A: According
to the BBC, Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters this
week, "For the moment, it is the judgement of our military and experts
that the level and type represents basically force protection."
Former senior general David Petraeus, however, sounded
more concerned in testimony to the Senate Armed Services
Committee on Tuesday. "Russia's recent military escalation
in Syria is a further reminder that when the U.S. does not take the initiative,
others will fill the vacuum, often in ways that are harmful to our
interest," Petraeus said, according to CNN. Petraeus said that Russia's moves in Syria are
designed to preserve Russian influence in the Middle East, adding, "I
think that what Vladimir Putin would like to do is resurrect the Russian
empire."
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