BY
There are many little known
clauses within The Rules of the Verkhovna Rada. Among that number are
Articles 59 and 60 which govern the creation of factions and/or groups within
the parliament.
In sum, parliamentary factions
and/or groups are to be formed within the first session of the Verkhovna Rada
for the duration of that parliamentary term/mandate. To remain valid
throughout a parliamentary term/mandate, those factions and/or groups shall not
be less than the number of members of the smallest faction and/or group when it
formed during the first parliamentary session.
As such, whilst factions
and/or group numbers may fluctuate during a parliamentary term as
parliamentarians defect from one and head to another, or when independents decide
to join one faction and/or group or another, the faction and/or group that was
the smallest when formed during the fist parliamentary session cannot afford to
do anything other than attract other parliamentarians. Should one of
their number leave, unless that parliamentarian can be replaced, within 15 days
that faction and/or group fails to exist per the aforementioned Articles within
the Rules of the Verkhovna Rada.
“Technical parties” are a
common phenomenon within Ukrainian politics. They are created to split
another parties vote – for example as Nash Krai was created by President
Poroshenko’s circle to include the more presidential leaning/compliant ex-Party
of Regions parliamentarians in order to split the Opposition Block voters –
which it successfully did. That, or they are created post elections to
coalesce around the interests of the oligarchy and/or non-official politically
vested interests.
It all gets rather murky and
disorientating when groups form within factions that represent opposing
interests and can hold each other to ransom when it comes to voting, or even
faction survival.
Whatever.
The result of the most recent
Verkhovna Rada elections witnessed the Will of the People (or the People’s Will
depending upon your translation) become the smallest faction/group of the
Verkhovna Rada with 20 parliamentarians. Ergo, no faction/group
could fall below 20 members during the current parliamentary term/mandate.
It is a group predominantly of
ex-Party of Regions MPs, among them is Sergei Liovochkin’s friend and business
partner of decades (the infamous Clearing House among others in their shared
ownership), Ivan Fusin for example (the wealthiest MP from Odessa). Mr
Liovochkin being a very influential player within Oppo Block (and business circles).
Their voting record as a
faction/group is prima facie inconsistent – which is what a
reader may expect for a small group with no ideology and that finds its power
due to the wafer thin majority of the current coalition. When it comes to
significant and crucial votes it often votes along the presidential line –
which is unsurprising when its members votes appear to be “for rent” for
anybody from The Bankova to Ihor Kolomoisky.
(Indeed it is this ability to
guarantee the presidential whim gets over the parliamentary voting finish line
when needs absolutely must, that insures that Mr Kolomoisky and Will of the
People insistence upon the clearly corrupt and thoroughly shameless Roman
Nasirov remains in post as Chief of the State Fiscal Service and has not been
sacked as he should have been long ago – and jailed for blatant and unabashed
corruption.)
This lack of ideology, “vote
for rent” technical entity being otherwise directionless, it has little in the
way of internal cohesion, structure, or overarching purpose. It often has
the appearance of simply falling apart.
On 26th October, MP Yuri
Shapovalov announced his departure from Will of the People. Ergo Articles
59 and 60 of The Rules of the Verkhovna Rada immediately came into force.
The Will of the People would cease to exist as a parliamentary
faction/group 15 days later – unless Will of the People could attract a
parliamentarian from elsewhere to replace him and maintain the 20 members it
had when becoming the smallest faction/group in the first parliamentary
session.
What to do if you happen to be
a wafer thin majority coalition when a technical party stacked with
ex-Regionaires that vote for your critical policies (due to grubby deals) when
it’s absolutely vital is about to implode within 15 days of 26th October?
Proven to be without moral and
open to hire, how many of this group would come to the president’s party – if
there are any among that number who are not so odious as to prevent such an
overt association?
Can these newly released
parliamentarians be permitted to bounce around the Verkhovna Rada chamber
chaotically before each embeds with a different faction and/or group?
Should they be allowed to
embed with the junior coalition party The People’s Front strengthening its hand
in the coalition? Can they be allowed to head to the Opposition Block, or
The Radicals, or Batkivshchyna or Nash Krai? What number of these
chaotically floating parliamentarians can be expected to embed where?
What are the repercussions of each?
If the status quo is
preferred and predictable for The Bankova, how to not only save the Will of the
People by 10th November, but also stabilise it and give it management and
structure going forward?
Clearly nothing so crass as
having a member of the president’s party defect to Will of the People is an
option for even though the President’s party is holding a lot of ex-Regionaires
among its ranks, public perception matters in this political parlour game.
The solution is obvious if a
degree of plausible deniability is the desired projected perception. Send
somebody from a presidential technical party to join the Will of the People
technical party, thus maintaining the broad and fairly predictable
parliamentary status quo.
Step forward Nash Krai, the
Bankova technical party created to split the ex-Regionaires.
But who from within Nash Krai?
It is not enough to simply send one member of Nash Krai to Will of the
People returning its number to 20 members in the immediate term.
Considering its lack of internal cohesion, structure, and management, an
effective individual would be a better choice for longer term predictability
and parliamentary stability requirements.
The answer it appears is to
send one of Nash Krai’s leading managers and long term Kharkiv parliamentarian
Olexander Feldman (over the past decade previously a member of both Ms Tymoshenko’s
Batkivshchyna, and latterly Party of Regions).
(Undoubtedly Ihor kolomoisky
will be reasonably happy with this arrangement too, with Messrs Feldman and
Kolomoisky long acquainted both through politics and through their historical
high positions within the Jewish organisations in Ukraine (and beyond)).
Thus the technicalities of
saving a technical party and maintaining the reasonably predictable
parliamentary status quo both before and behind the political
curtain would appear solved – providing the necessary announcements are made
within the Verkhovna Rada prior to 10th November when the 15 days termination
of Will of the People following Mr Shapovalov is due to be triggered.
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