BY
During the
Russian President’s annual press conference of 17th December, President Putin
admitted that there were Russian military personnel in the occupied
Donbas “We never said there were not people there who carried out
certain tasks including in the military sphere.” He insisted
that they were not regular troops, thus inferring something “harmless”, such as
military observers (GRU intelligence operatives).
The media and
diplomatic community jumped upon the statement as a first public admission of
Russian military action in the occupied Donbas.
Except it is
actually the second public admission of Russian military action within the
occupied Donbas – not the first.
Today
Russian President for the first time publicly admitted the presence of Russian
military in Donbas #StopRussianAggression
— Петро Порошенко (@poroshenko) December 17,
2015
It seems the
Ukrainian President is not fully briefed by his people on OSINT (Open-Source
Intelligence) either – that or they are simply not paying attention to what
President Putin says when he is on his travels.
Many months ago in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, President Putin
clearly, and for the first time publicly and on the record stated “All our
actions, including those with the use of force, were aimed
not at tearing away this territory from Ukraine but at giving the people living
there an opportunity to express their opinion on how they want to live their
lives.”
It certainly
wasn’t missed by everybody, as Sir Lawrence Freedman, Dr Alex Clarkson and this
blog briefly exchanged views regarding the statement at the time in the public
realm.
Indeed the
statement of the Russian President in his annual “presser” may be interpreted
by some as something of a step back from his statement to Corriere della Sera
some months ago.
Whatever the
case, neither public presidential statement says anything that everybody didn’t
know already – and both fail to do justice to the size, cost and scale of
armour and personnel sent into the occupied Donbas to confront Ukraine.
The question is
why there is (another) such a public admission now? If we are to accept
the public statement to Corriere della Sera as a less than prudent slip of the
tongue, that fortunately for Mr Putin seems to have been ignored by (almost)
all, then the annual “presser” statement was made in the full knowledge that it
would certainly not be missed.
Was it made in
the knowledge that as sanctions are assured to be extended, there was nothing
to lose by admitting some (though heavily emphasised not “regular”) military
personnel in the occupied Donbas as insurance against any more getting
detained, but as a cover for any more being spotted whilst there to carry out
nefarious activities?
If not, what
does that infer? Military for military prisoner swaps?
Is it an
acknowledgement that a little of the truth was required for the Russian
domestic audience following a recent poll that stated most Russians no longer
believe the propaganda they are fed by Kremlin controlled media? An
acknowledgement that there was a need to buy back a little domestic faith in
the Kremlin propaganda machinery?
Was it simply a
matter of (un)fortunate timing the statement coincided with Ukrainian President
Poroshenko being with NATO as deals were getting signed? If so was that
good or bad timing, for who, and for which audience was the statement intended?
As Kremlin foreign policy is driven by its domestic policy first and
foremost, presumably all answers of the “Putin presser” where framed for the
domestic audience primarily.
Does the statement
presage a notable infusion of Russian military personnel on the horizon whereby
it is assured some will be captured and the “sting” taken out of unhelpful
press headlines when they are via this statement? A case of we said we
had some personnel there, what’s the fuss?
Certainly one
look at the (rather fanciful) Russian budget for 2016 clearly shows a statement
of intent. The Military/defence and the repressive domestic State
institutions see increased spending, when everything else sees budgets slashed.
Ergo 2016 will see no change in Kremlin foreign or domestic policy when
following the money. Syria and Ukraine can expect no change of policy any
more than the Russian citizen now witnessing living standards fall.
Relations with Turkey will not dramatically improve either – not that
anybody would expect them to.
Indeed the
region and the world can expect more of the same in 2016 from The Kremlin –
well they should be expecting it on the presumption they are not missing the
public OSINT signposts so helpfully placed by The Kremlin.
That said, when
it seems almost everybody missed, or willfully ignored, President Putin public
admission/statement regarding the use of force within Ukraine months ago,
perhaps 2016 will see a continued and entirely foolish determination by the
West to maintain a pretence of (possible) partnership (Syria), or that of mere
competitor (Ukraine), when a clear-eyed “big picture” view is one of an
unambiguous adversary (throughout the region), it seems very possible that all
the helpfully placed Kremlin policy OSINT public signposts will be willfully
and wantonly ignored – again.
Whatever the
case, Mr Putin’s statements of months ago, and of 17th December, regarding
Ukraine hardly amount to revelatory news, albeit allowing for some easy (and no
doubt thoroughly enjoyed) diplomatic point scoring. All Ukrainian media eyes will be focused upon the EU decision
of 18th December regarding the recommendation of granting of Visa-free for the
nation at some point during mid/late 2016 – or not – despite the fact that the
Ukrainian political elite have done the absolute bear minimum to meet the
requirements.
Indeed few would
be surprised that if and when a date is given to commence Visa-free (which is
quite possible) that it will be provisional with the caveat that all
established anti-corruption bodies are not only actively working, but also
bringing definitive results before the identified date to remove the need to
get Visa’s for a 90 day stay becomes activated.
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