SOFA EXPERT GEOPOLITICS: POLYBIUS, UKRAINE, RUSSIA AND KAZAKHSTAN

 

Polybius distinguished two causes of any war: the real cause of the war and the public cause of the war.

We will venture a little further and say that the reasons for the Russian invasion of Ukraine have three levels in their complex.

The first level is the public cause of the war: demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.

The second level is the intention of the ruling clans of Russia to seize Ukraine and divide its material assets among themselves.

The third level is the struggle for the right to be called the successor of Kyivan Rus’.

The failure of the Russian blitzkrieg, as well as the possibility of Russia's defeat, led to the appearance of unexpected messages in the Russian media space. Namely: Russia is the heir of the Golden Horde.

How did this become possible? The answer lies in the historical foundation of the Russian state, or rather in its absence. Russia is a fake state, which was invented by Tsar Peter I in 1721. This state has no historical foundation. If Russia cannot take over Ukraine again, then it will not be able to once again appropriate the history of Ukraine.

Hence, Russia will not be able to claim the role of heir to Kyivan Rus'. After all, there was only one Rus'. And this Rus' had Kyiv as its center. Thus there is a Russian paradox: the imaginary historical center of Russia is located outside of Russia.

A fallback option in the search for a historical foundation for Russia is to claim the heritage of the Golden Horde. This is all the more appropriate now when Putin has made a pivot to the east.

However, Kazakhstan seems to be well aware of the consequences of such succession. Invasion of course, what else?

Kazakhstan is taking proactive steps to preserve its historical heritage. In particular, the President of Kazakhstan took the initiative to change the coat of arms of Kazakhstan. The coat of arms of Kazakhstan is too Soviet and does not reflect the historical heritage of Kazakhstan, the President of Kazakhstan believes.

The initiative of the President of Kazakhstan is accompanied by proper information support, such as: 1. Kazakhstan is the direct heir of the Golden Horde; 2. The only known grave of a direct descendant of Genghis Khan is in Kazakhstan.

As a result, if Ukraine defends its historical heritage of Kyivan Rus', and Kazakhstan strengthens its status as the heir of the Golden Horde, then an obvious question will arise: Where did Russia come from?

The answer to this question will be given in the next post.