Sunday, April 21, 2024

SOFA EXPERT GEOPOLITICS: THE LONG-AWAITED VOTING OF CONGRESS OR THE TRANSFIGURATION OF SPEAKER JOHNSON AND TRUMP


 Well, the long-suffering six-month epic of US aid to Ukraine is nearing its end. The US Congress supported the provision of assistance to Ukraine in the amount of $61 billion. The aid package allows the United States to transfer over $20 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine within a short period of time. 

In addition, it provides for the confiscation of Russian assets in the United States, which will be spent in favor of Ukraine. 


Finally, the United States will send additional military advisers to Ukraine.


This is a powerful signal of US leadership both to Ukraine and to the whole world. Many countries who sympathize with Russia or secretly support Russia should take this signal. Russia as an aggressor should not defeat Ukraine. Putin will be held accountable, as was determined in the G7 Statements.


The following circumstances contributed to Ukraine’s successful voting in Congress:

1. Ukraine has become a significant factor in the presidential election race in the United States.

2. The position of Speaker Johnson and Trump regarding Ukraine has changed dramatically.

3. The transformation of Johnson and Trump is caused by the negative impact on Trump's rating of their blocking of aid to Ukraine. In addition, there is a high probability that Ukraine made an interesting offer to Trump that he could not refuse.


The vote in Congress could turn out to be fateful for both Ukraine and Russia. A fire of hysteria has already broken out in the Russian media. The painful reaction of the Russian political establishment testifies to the correctness of the path chosen by the United States. Russia set in motion all legal and illegal mechanisms, used all useful idiots in order to prevent voting in favor of Ukraine, since US military assistance to Ukraine could radically change the situation on the battlefield. Hence Russia’s hasty calls for peaceful negotiations before the vote.


At this stage, there are several beneficiaries of the Congressional vote to provide an aid package to Ukraine.


First is President Biden. He wanted to provide assistance to Ukraine and, apparently, he will achieve what he wants. 


Secondly, there is former President Trump. He proved that he can manage political processes in the United States even without being the current president.


Third, this is Speaker Johnson. He managed to withstand a barrage of criticism and even gain political weight. How much can be achieved using not the mind, but an official position.


Fourth, the main beneficiary is the Ukrainian people and their military personnel. The Ukrainian armed forces valiantly held back the Russian offensive all this time.


In addition to the beneficiaries of the US Congress successful vote, there are the winners and the losers.


The winner is Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. While Ukrainian soldiers held back the Russian army on the battlefield, he managed to hold out on the diplomatic front. The operation to force Ukraine to surrender ended in complete failure thanks to him.


The loser in this situation is Vladimir Putin. It is obvious that US military assistance to Ukraine will not add to his authority. At the same time, the decision to confiscate Russian assets in favor of Ukraine is no less destructive for both his authority and his pride.


After all, we look forward to the vote in the US Senate.


Glory to Ukraine!


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