It is oft remarked upon as to why so many “also rans” take part in the presidential elections.
Why do so many candidates spend so much time and money running for an office that 99% will never attain as they simply do not have the support necessary to win and never will?
It cannot be denied that some are “technical candidates” – those running simply to split the vote of another in order to insure they fail for favours from the victors further down the road.
However there is more to it than that.
The “also rans” who stand no chance of election are, for the most part, leaders of political parties – and thus their election run and campaign in no small measure will act as litmus test and also pre-electioneering for their political parties.
Some leaders will look at their polling results and transpose them onto the chances (and potential size) of their party in any future Verkhovna Rada.
Others, such as Anatoli Hyrtsenko, traditionally have witnessed their reasonable polling figures dissipate upon polling day – time and again. Do not be surprised if it happen this time too.
In 2019, the Verkhovna Rada elections are in October – a mere 7 months after the presidential election. 7 months in which to form any necessary situational alliance with other borderline parties, or indeed to forecast any minority or majority within the Verkhovna Rada – and thus who to court, flirt, bribe and coerce into any coalition partnership.
For individual “career” politicians, it can also serve as a guide as to which party and which party leader to prostitute themselves to – let not such issues as principle nor party ideology prevent such practicalities. As political power undoubtedly corrupts in Ukraine, then reluctantly (sarcasm) Ukrainian politicians will strive to remain atop of that unprincipled heap.
However, occasionally parties begin to fray at the edges, and yet others are so brittle being comprised of competing interests they collapse – or at least will succumb to the centrifugal forces within, only to bind themselves together with duct tape at the last moment to remain relevant.
So (once again) this appears to be the case within the Oppo Block (historically if rather crudely split between the Akhmetov faction and the Firtash faction internally).
Needless to say the current situational alliance between Rinat Akhmetov and Presdient Poroshenko, vis a vis the “oligarch in exile” status of Dmitry Firtash, adds additional spice/interest to any internal divisions and traitorous acts within the internal ranks.
Naturally matters within are not quite so black and white – there are mutual “business interests” not to mention matters of mutual and individual survival within the Ukrainian Colosseum of power to consider.
There are also personal feuds. Mykola Skoryk (an odious creature of Dmitry Firtash) and Vladmin Rabinovych (a twice convicted and twice imprisoned criminal (theft and gun running) and increasingly aligning with the poisonous Viktor Medvedchuk) have a long standing bitter public and often spurious feud.
Interestingly, Yuri Boyko and Sergei Liovochkin (another creature of Firtash) from Oppo Block seemingly signed an agreement to align with Rabinovych’s small party on 8th November – creating the Opposition Platform – For Life.
(Rabinovych doesn’t poll too badly, albeit nowhere near well enough to become president, yet certainly well enough to gather seats in a future VR election. He is, as already stated, also getting very close to Viktor Medvedchuk as the increasing number of Medvedchuk apparatchiks surrounding Rabinovych makes clear.)
Humble pie in copious spoonfuls for Mykola Skoryk ahead if an unholy triangle of Firtash-Medvedchuk and Rabinovych results? A reader can only hope that such a public humiliation occurs!
Whatever the case the next Verkhovna Rada will be a difficult place to build and maintain a functioning majority coalition – and also difficult for the next president (whoever that may be) to influence effectively.
However, Vadim Novinsky, who is a cancerous blight upon Ukraine and business partner of Rinat Akhmetov, has publicly disowned the alliance seemingly made by Boyko and Liovochin with Rabinovych on behalf of the Oppo Block, claiming (correctly) that it has no legal standing for Oppo Block as there were numerous party protocols ignored.
Novinsky’s alternative vehicle within the Oppo Block bubble is a public organisation (but that acts as a political party and may yet turn into one) called the “Party of Peace”. Behind him in this organisation sits the relatively unknown, yet influential Gol’darb family and a string of forgotten people linked with Yulia Tymoshenko – Messrs Holoshin, Kurcherenko and Kulikov among others.
Whether Novinsky acts alone, or on behalf of, or apparently behalf of, or even merely is perceived to be acting as a front for Rinat Akhmetov is as yet somewhat unclear.
At the time of writing it would appear to be he acts alone – but Mr Akhmetov will have to find something or some way to control or counter the FIrtash move with Rabinovych (and by extension Medvedchuk) within the current flux and convulsions of the Oppo Block.
If he remains distant from the “Party of Peace” misnomer of his business partner Vadim Novinsky – which would seem a particularly wise thing to do given its extremely dubious “manifesto” – it is yet another complication.
(Naturally Mr Akhmetov also has fingers in other parties too – eggs and baskets and all that).
It remains to be seen what Rinat Akhmetov will do about it – and perhaps when that happens it will depend upon what “it” actually is.
“It” may have to show itself before any clear action from Mr Akhmetov becomes apparent.
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