The strong ties between the
Dutch and the Brits are being tested by the Brexit vote.
Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
AMSTERDAM — As Brexit
negotiations approach there’s a distinct chill in the air between Britain and
the Netherlands, and it’s not just because Theresa May can’t hope to replicate
the bromance between her predecessor David Cameron and Dutch leader Mark Rutte.
The U.K. may be the
Netherlands’ third-biggest export market, but the Dutch center-right prime
minister has compelling reasons for wanting Britain to squirm as it leaves the
EU. Like many European leaders, he’s facing a strong Euroskeptic challenge in
next March’s election.
“He doesn’t have the
political space to make it too easy for the U.K.,” said Kees Verhoeven of the
liberal D66 party, who sits on the Dutch parliament’s European affairs
committee. “The only thing that’s really important is: Don’t make the United
Kingdom an argument for populists to leave the EU.”
Rutte, the 49-year-old
leader of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), has told
parliament he’s training like a “boxer” for the Brexit negotiations ahead.
He’ll find it much easier to take a swing at May than his old chum Cameron,
with whom he was in the habit of swapping text messages — “mostly about stupid
stuff,” Rutte confided to the BBC.
Indeed, Cameron trusted
Rutte so much that the Dutchman stood in for him at an EU summit last year. The
Dutch, Brits, Danes and Finns often formed a cluster of like-minded northern
Europeans to act as a bulwark against German and French influence, according to
Adriaan Schout of the Dutch think-tank Clingendael.
“Migration, military defense
cooperation, energy liberalization … there are major areas where the Dutch will
really miss the U.K.,” Schout said.
The frostier new tone was
apparent when Cameron’s successor as Conservative prime minister visited the
Netherlands last week. She didn’t even issue a press statement after her
meeting with Rutte, in contrast to her visits to Croatia and Denmark; after her
talks in Copenhagen, May spoke of a “mature, cooperative relationship” with
Europe, whereas Rutte’s tone was much more distant.
“It is evident that we will
also have shared interests in the future, but the fact remains that very
complex negotiations lie ahead,” Rutte said following his meeting with May. He
backed Paris and Berlin in saying that Britain would not be able to remain in
the single market while restricting freedom of movement. “This is not a menu to
choose from,” he said.
Cautionary tale
Rather than fueling demands
for a copycat Dutch vote, the Brexit result has muffled debate on the EU in the
Netherlands as the country watches the worrying events across the North Sea. EU
membership has barely been mentioned so far in the incipient Dutch election
campaign, and Rutte is keen to keep it that way. The plunge in sterling and
political ferment in Britain, where there was a wave of resignations on both
sides of the campaign following the vote, have created caution in the
Netherlands.
“After Brexit, the ‘Nexit’
discussion went down. It’s quite a paradox but it happened,” said Verhoeven.
Socialist MP Harry van
Bommel, who also sits on the Dutch parliament’s European affairs committee,
attempted to grill Rutte for details following May’s visit. “He completely kept
us in the dark. We haven’t got a clue,” van Bommel said. “The prime minister is
not willing to say anything because he says that might weaken the Dutch
negotiating position.”
“The main lesson is: ‘Woah.
This is a bit too much,'” said Jacques Monasch, a euro-critical member of the
Labour party, which forms part of Rutte’s governing coalition. “That no party
picks up the momentum of Brexit, that a major partner wants to exit the
European Union, I think is a sign.”
‘Very unwise’
Even the openly Euroskeptic
parties, fresh from delivering a rebuke to the EU by winning a referendum on a
trade treaty with Ukraine earlier this year, are exercising caution and have so
far refrained from using calls for a ‘Nexit’ as their rallying cry in the
campaign.
Jan Roos, who helped collect
the required signatures to trigger the Ukraine referendum, has entered politics
at the head of a party whose flagship proposal is a flat tax. Its EU policy is
“less Brussels.”
His fellow Euroskeptic
Thierry Baudet announced last month that his Forum for Democracy party would
also contest the election, but it isn’t demanding an in-out ballot on EU
membership. Instead, it would like to hold four separate votes on aspects of EU
participation: the euro, free movement, common foreign policy and primacy of EU
law.
Geert Wilders, whose Freedom
Party is neck-and-neck with Rutte’s VVD in opinion polls, did call for the
Netherlands to hold its own referendum on EU membership in the immediate
aftermath of Britain’s vote. Recently, however, Wilders has been promoting a
different policy: for Dutch citizens to be able to demand binding referendums
four times a year. Under Dutch law, referendums are only advisory and apply to
new treaties or legislation.
Support for the Netherlands
to leave the EU dropped in the weeks following Britain’s vote, a poll by the
website Peil.nl showed, but it was still at a significant 40 percent of
respondents. This means Rutte must tread carefully to avoid exacerbating
lingering dissatisfaction among voters, said Monasch of the Labour party.
“I’m afraid the political
establishment is going to feel they can ride it out, wait for the tide to
change and then go with our plans for a more federal Europe,” Monasch said.
“That would be very, very unwise. As soon as anybody in the Netherlands smells
that undercurrent, there is going to be trouble.”
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