Globalisation’s
critics say it benefits only the elite. In fact, a less open world would hurt
the poor most of all
IN SEPTEMBER 1843 the Liverpool Mercury reported on a large free-trade
rally in the city. The Royal Amphitheatre was overflowing. John Bright, a newly
elected MP, spoke eloquently on the merits of abolishing duties on imported
food, echoing arguments made inThe Economist, a
fledgling newspaper. Mr Bright told his audience that when canvassing, he had
explained “how stonemasons, shoemakers, carpenters and every kind of artisan
suffered if the trade of the country was restricted.” His speech in Liverpool
was roundly cheered.
It is hard to imagine, 173
years later, a leading Western politician being lauded for a defence of free
trade. Neither candidate in America’s presidential election is a champion.
Donald Trump, incoherent on so many fronts, is clear in this area: unfair
competition from foreigners has destroyed jobs at home. He threatens to
dismantle the North American Free Trade Agreement, withdraw from the
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and start a trade war with China. To her discredit,
Hillary Clinton now denounces the TPP, a pact she helped negotiate. In Germany,
one of the world’s biggest exporters, tens of thousands took to the streets
earlier this month to march against a proposed trade deal between the European
Union and the United States (see article).
The backlash against trade is
just one symptom of a pervasive anxiety about the effects of open economies.
Britain’s Brexit vote reflected concerns about the impact of unfettered
migration on public services, jobs and culture. Big businesses are slammed for
using foreign boltholes to dodge taxes. Such critiques contain some truth: more
must be done to help those who lose out from openness. But there is a world of
difference between improving globalisation and reversing it. The idea that
globalisation is a scam that benefits only corporations and the rich could
scarcely be more wrong.
The real pro-poor policy
Exhibit A is the vast
improvement in global living standards in the decades after the second world
war, which was underpinned by an explosion in world trade. Exports of goods
rose from 8% of world GDP in 1950 to almost 20% a half-century later.
Export-led growth and foreign investment have dragged hundreds of millions out
of poverty in China, and transformed economies from Ireland to South Korea.
Plainly, Western voters are
not much comforted by this extraordinary transformation in the fortunes of
emerging markets. But at home, too, the overall benefits of free trade are
unarguable. Exporting firms are more productive and pay higher wages than those
that serve only the domestic market. Half of America’s exports go to countries
with which it has a free-trade deal, even though their economies account for
less than a tenth of global GDP.
Protectionism, by contrast,
hurts consumers and does little for workers. The worst-off benefit far more
from trade than the rich. A study of 40 countries found that the richest
consumers would lose 28% of their purchasing power if cross-border trade ended;
but those in the bottom tenth would lose 63%. The annual cost to American
consumers of switching to non-Chinese tyres after Barack Obama slapped on
anti-dumping tariffs in 2009 was around $1.1 billion, according to the Peterson
Institute for International Economics. That amounts to over $900,000 for each
of the 1,200 jobs that were “saved”.
Openness delivers other
benefits. Migrants improve not just their own lives but the economies of host
countries: European immigrants who arrived in Britain since 2000 have been net
contributors to the exchequer, adding more than £20 billion ($34 billion) to
the public finances between 2001 and 2011. Foreign direct investment delivers
competition, technology, management know-how and jobs, which is why China’s
overly cautious moves to encourage FDI disappoint (see article).
What have you done for me
lately?
None of this is to deny that
globalisation has its flaws. Since the 1840s advocates of free trade have known
that, though the great majority benefit, some lose out. Too little has been
done to help these people. Perhaps a fifth of the 6m or so net job losses in
American manufacturing between 1999 and 2011 stemmed from Chinese competition;
many of those who lost jobs did not find new ones. With hindsight, politicians
in Britain were too blithe about the pressures that migration from new EU
member states in eastern Europe brought to bear on public services. And
although there are no street protests about the speed and fickleness in the
tides of short-term capital, its ebb and flow across borders have often proved
damaging, not least in the euro zone’s debt-ridden countries.
As our special report this
week argues, more must be done to tackle these downsides. America spends a
paltry 0.1% of its GDP, one-sixth of the rich-country average, on policies to
retrain workers and help them find new jobs. In this context, it is lamentable
that neither Mr Trump nor Mrs Clinton offers policies to help those whose jobs
have been affected by trade or cheaper technology. On migration, it makes sense
to follow the example of Denmark and link local-government revenues to the
number of incomers, so that strains on schools, hospitals and housing can be
eased. Many see the rules that bind signatories to trade pacts as an affront to
democracy. But there are ways that shared rules can enhance national autonomy.
Harmonising norms on how multinational firms are taxed would give countries
greater command over their public finances. A co-ordinated approach to curbing
volatile capital flows would restore mastery over national monetary policy.
These are the sensible
responses to the peddlers of protectionism and nativism.
The worst answer would
be for countries to turn their backs on globalisation.
The case for openness
remains much the same as it did when this newspaper was founded to support the
repeal of the Corn Laws. There are more—and more varied—opportunities in open
economies than in closed ones. And, in general, greater opportunity makes
people better off. Since the 1840s, free-traders have believed that closed
economies favour the powerful and hurt the labouring classes. They were right then. They are right now.
No comments:
Post a Comment