Escalation With Russia Just Became More Likely

Despite a propaganda blitz meant to shift the blame for the poisoning of former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in the U.K. earlier this month, Russia looks set to face bruising consequences. The newfound unity among European Union leaders on the matter and the appointment of fierce Russia hawk John Bolton as President Donald Trump's national security advisor are potential precursors of collective Western action against Russia.

The difficulty lies in figuring out how far that action could go without releasing President Vladimir Putin's Kremlin from any remaining trace of civilized restraint. Risk aversion may still prevail at the end.