Is a Russian Invasion of Kazakhstan on the Horizon?

President Vladimir Putin’s popularity in Russia is not nearly as strong as it once was. Though Putin will unquestionably win the 2018 presidential election in March, civilian unrest can soon graduate to a regime threatening uprising if it is not kept in check through foreign policy victories. In this analyst’s opinion, Russia will invade Kazakhstan within four to six years because Vladimir Putin will seek to exploit a vulnerable neighbor to boost his popularity for the 2024 Russian presidential election. Like Ukraine in 2013, Kazakhstan will soon be reorienting itself away from Russia, experiencing a disruptive domestic political environment, and threatening Russian assets in the region.