By Paul Tugwell and Selcan Hacaoglu
The latest talks to unify Cyprus come as key parties, including Turkey and the U.K., face existential issues at home. Still, the negotiations starting Jan. 9 in Geneva have some forces working in their favor, leading to optimism that 40 years of division might be coming to an end. The Mediterranean island -- less than half the size of New Jersey -- has been split along ethnic lines since 1974, when Turkey invaded to prevent its unification with Greece. It’s divided into the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and, in the south, the Republic of Cyprus. Only the south is internationally recognized.
1. What’s different this time?
Political leaders say an accord has never been closer. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will add his weight to the talks on Jan. 12, and he’s expected to be joined by the Greek and British leaders. A deal on one of the world’s toughest diplomatic challenges would be a last hurrah for U.S. President Barack Obama and give U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May some much-needed good news amid the domestic battles over Brexit. Turkey keeps about 35,000 troops on the island, while the U.K., which gave up Cyprus in 1960, still has military bases there.
2. What would reunification mean?
It would free up trade and investment in the area and have political and economic ramifications far beyond the island’s shores. Because Cyprus is so close to the Turkish coast, a settlement would allow development and export of eastern Mediterranean oil and gas to Turkey and Europe via a pipeline from Cyprus. Since Greece and Turkey are both members of NATO, reunification would help to strengthen the organization in the Mediterranean as Russia expands its influence in the region through its support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. More than 10,500 Russians lived on Cyprus as of 2011, with many based in the southern city of Limassol. A United Nations-administered buffer zone divides the island.
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