Yevgeny Magda
Photo from UNIAN
New Year’s festivities were no obstacle for senior
officials of Ukraine and the EU to exchange opinions on prospects of
development of bilateral relations. Ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, his
opponents have been highly active in the media, which affects the actions of
the future president and his team.
Mistrust over the EU failure to grant Ukraine a
visa-free regime in 2016 is still echoing today. Deputy Foreign Minister Olena
Zerkal believes that the European Union is dragging with its decisions aimed at
rapprochement with Ukraine.
According to her, visa liberalization will be granted
before the presidential elections in France, but the mechanism will become
effective after they are held, probably in the summer. Vice Prime Minister
Ivanka Klympush-Tsyntsadze did not dare to name the exact deadline for visa
lib, logically explaining her position with the fact that various dates had
already been voiced repeatedly, but decision was never adopted.
Head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine Hugues Mingarelli
expressed confidence that Ukraine would get visa liberalization with the
European Union, also avoiding naming any dates. There is nothing strange in
this situation. On the one hand, Ukraine is in the focus of foreign producers
as a significant market.
Besides, it is also the owner of continent’s largest
array of agricultural land. On the other, Europe is not inclined to raise a
potential competitor, while the situation within the EU is not conducive to any
integration processes. The conflict in Donbas provides an opportunity for
European politicians to maneuver, juggling their own promises.
In turn, the Ukrainian elites prefer not to publicly
display a single rush toward European integration. Viktor Pinchuk sensed the
attitudes perfectly, attempting on Friday 13 to interpret his position earlier
voiced in a WSJ column to Ukrainians.
The oligarch is trying to explain that there is
nothing wrong with his proposals of "painful compromises" with Russia
for the sake of reaching peace in Donbas, blaming “translation issues”. The
question remains open, why such proposals were initially voiced targeting the Western
audience, as well as the reasons for the low efficiency of the Yalta European
Strategy (YES), which has failed to establish a Ukrainian mainstream line in
the West.
Stating systemic crisis of the EU and a virtually zero
probability of Ukraine becoming a NATO member in the near future, "the
engineer" says nothing about the actual steps Russia should take to
establish peace in Donbas. It might be due to his modesty.
Meanwhile, the United States is seeing increased
excitement around the future inauguration of Donald Trump. Future 45th
president of the United States on the eve of his press conference was accused
of cooperating with Russia in order to secure his election.
So far, these charges have not yet been verified and
do not give reason to believe with absolute certainty that the Republican
nominee is on the Kremlin’s hook. On the other hand, Trump campaign’s logic
suggests that after his victory, he will have to go through some hard times as
too many influential members of the American society and media are dissatisfied
with his triumph. Contender for the post of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
during a Senate hearing not only recognized the Russian threat, but also made
it clear that he would have acted more decisively in the place of the Obama administration
in February-March 2014. The Republicans have consistently advocated for the
provision of assistance to Ukraine, but is unlikely to rely on emergency
supplies of lethal defensive weapons.
Tillerson supports the idea of maintaining Russia
sanctions (which Barack Obama has extended until 2018) but he does not
completely reject the possibility of a broad agreement on Crimea, which should
satisfy Ukraine. It seems that at least in its first 100 days, Trump
administration will not take drastic steps in its foreign policy. Meanwhile,
the U.S. is deploying its brigade in Central Europe, the presence of which
should cool down the Kremlin hawks.
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