Saturday, December 31, 2016

Ukrainian interest – 2017. Frozen Donbas, disappointment in Europe, and surprise overseas

Yevgeny Magda


Photo from UNIAN

The Donbas conflict remains an unresolved problem, and tactical successes are not enough to ensure the positive dynamics. The strategy of Crimea and Donbas return has not been revealed to the public and expert community. European vector of Ukraine’s foreign policy received a positive evaluation only for the work in the PACE. The victory of Donald Trump stunned Ukrainian political elite, and it seems it has not yet recovered fully.


The occupied territories of Donbass remain a problem to the whole  Ukraine. Despite the fact that hostilities in eastern Ukraine have been scaled down, they continue to claim lives. The Donbas infrastructure is in a continuous collapse. The death of Arsen Pavlov (aka Motorola) has not led to any fundamental change in attitudes among the separatist units. 


The Normandy Four and the Trilateral Contact Group are unable to achieve an actual solution to the conflict in Donbas, while Western diplomats, given the Russian factor, say that this would only be possible at the expense of Ukrainian interests. Therefore, we should not overestimate the findings of the joint investigation team on the causes of MH17 crash, where they expressly blamed the Russian Buk anti-aircraft system. The conflict in Donbass is gradually freezing, and this fact will bring serious consequences for Ukraine.


Obviously, Ukraine needs a plan of Donbas and Crimea return, which would be clear and transparent to its citizens. So far, these intentions are all about rhetoric rather than technological algorithms. Further delay in this issue could be disastrous for Ukraine as Moscow is dead serious about increasing pressure on Crimea and retaining Donbas within its sphere of influence, applying a variety of techniques to this end.

The hunt for subversives, propaganda indoctrination and the injection of the "Russian world" ideas in huge doses are the most notable of them, as well as holding in the occupied peninsula of elections to the State Duma.

The return to Ukraine of the so-called "Scythian gold" from the Netherlands has rather been a pleasant surprise than the evidence that the Europeans realize the risk of changing the post-war borders across the continent.



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