Last month, after months of urine-soaked intrigue, the International Olympic Committee decided not to call for a blanket ban on Russian athletes at
the Rio Games. Despite clear evidence of a state-sponsored doping regime, the
IOC chose to allow individual federations to make the call on whether Russian
competitors should compete or stay home. As a consequence, Russia will field an
estimated 271 of the 389 sportsmen and sportswomen who’d been planning to go to
Rio.
The weightlifters and track and fielders are out, as are certain swimmers, rowers, canoeists, and cyclists. Pretty much everyone else is in. News did break
Saturday that the IOC hadcleared swimmers Vladimir Morozov and Nikita Lobintsev to compete. And eight athletes’ cases are reportedly still pending or
under review following appeals, meaning the Russian contingent could still grow
despite the games already being underway.
Russia’s partial attendance at the 2016 Olympics gives
the games what they’ve been missing since the Cold War: a real villain. The
absence of Yelena Isinbayeva, the 2012 London Games’ women’s pole-vaulting gold
medalist, and Sergey Shubenkov, the world champion in the 110-meter hurdles, surprised and delighted Americans who have now seen their chances to medal increase. But
plenty of Russian heavy-hitters still remain. Here’s our guide to the biggest
potential showdowns between the United States and Russia.
Women’s
gymnastics: The most high-profile USA–Russia battles of the Rio
Games will be fought on the balance beam, bars, vault, and floor. Though the
Russian women won six medals in artistic gymnastics at the 2012 Games compared
to the Americans’ five, the U.S. did take gold in both the team and individual
all-around. The U.S. will likely sweep those events again in Rio. The Americans
are expected to win team gold on Aug. 9, and Simone Biles is the overwhelming
favorite to win individual honors on Aug. 11, with Russia’s Angelina Melnikova
likely to contend for silver.
Things will get tighter in the
individual apparatus finals from Aug. 14-16. While Russia’s Aliya Mustafina
struck gold in the uneven bars in London, her teammate Daria Spiridonova is
also strong in the event. For the Americans, 19-year-old Olympic newcomer
Madison Kocian is the best hope on bars. The vault could be a contest between
Biles and Russia’s Maria Paseka, and Biles and Melnikova are both strong on the
beam. On the floor exercise, Sports Illustrated predicts an all American and Russian podium, with Biles, Aly Raisman, and Ksenia
Afanasyeva winning gold, silver, and bronze respectively.
Men’s
wrestling: When
American unknown Rulon Gardner laid low Russia’s undefeated super-heavyweight champion
Aleksandr Karelin at the
2000 Sydney Games, it was the greatest American triumph over Russia since
1980’s “Miracle on Ice.” This year, 19-year-old Kyle Snyder, Team
USA’s youngest-ever world champion, will try to replicate Gardner’s feat; he could face Chechen Anzor
Boltukaev in the
97-kilogram freestyle final on Aug. 21.
Another
potential matchup to watch: New Jersey’s Jordan Burroughs vs.
Aniuar Geduev in the 74-kilogram final on Aug. 19. Back in May, Geduev defeated
Denis Tsargush, who took bronze in London and is one of just two wrestlers ever
to beat Burroughs. By the transitive property, that could
spell trouble on the mat for the U.S.—though the Associated Press guesses Burroughs
will eke out the gold.
Women’s
swimming: In 2012,
then–17-year-old Missy Franklin smashed the world record in the 200-meter backstroke to win
her third gold medal of the London Games, relegating Russia’s Anastasia Zueva
to silver medal position. This year, neither woman is expected to medal in
Sunday’s 200-meter backstroke final—at the U.S. Olympic Trials, Franklin swam
nearly four seconds slower in the 200 back than she had in London. But perhaps
the American and Russian rivals will surprise us by recapturing their old
forms.
The duel
in the pool could get more intriguing if Russia’s Yuliya Efimova is permitted
to compete. Hers is one of three appealed cases under IOC review after the Court of Arbitration
for Sport ruled her ineligible to participate in Rio due to a
previous doping ban. If she’s cleared, she could be tough competition for Lilly
King, the American record holder in the 100-meter breaststroke. That event is
also on Sunday.
Men’s
boxing: In the
bantamweight category, in which contestants are capped at 56 kilograms, the AP
predicts New Jersey native Shakur Stevenson will finish ahead of Russia’s
Vladimir Nikitin, with Stevenson winning silver and Nikitin bronze. If both men advance out of the early rounds, they’ll
face off in the semifinals on Aug. 18.
Women’s
fencing: Gear up
for a swashbuckling showdown on the piste. The AP
projects Russia’s sabre team will beat out Team USA to take gold on Aug. 13. If
it does, it’ll be a win largely attributable to Russia’s prized swordswoman,
2012 Olympic silver medalist and two-time World Fencing Championships gold
medalist Sofya Velikaya, who is
favored to top the podium in the women’s individual sabre on Aug. 8.
Women’s long jump: The IOC’s partial ban has opened the door for individual
competitors to lobby for the right to compete as “neutral athletes”
unaffiliated with mother Russia. Long jumper and model Darya Klishina was
originally cleared to perform under this provision, as her Florida-based
training meant she was drug-tested outside the Russian system. It now appears
that Klishina, who’s been deemed a traitor by
some of her compatriots, will compete under her country’s banner as
Russia’s only track-and-field athlete. (The other 67 were banned.) Most of the
intrigue here will come before the long jump competition begins. Klishina is
not expected to medal, and it’s unlikely she’ll present much of a challenge to
Americans Brittney Reese or Tianna Bartoletta, who the AP predicts will claim
gold and silver respectively on Aug. 16.
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