Norbert Maliszewski
Poland’s ruling Law and Justice has no reason to give
in to Brussels. The EU’s too easy to portray as arrogant and out of touch with
ordinary Poles.
When
Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in 2015, the party and its leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, claimed to represent Poles who feel
like they missed out on the country’s quarter century of political and economic
revolution. PiS cast its rivals as arrogant crony politicians who cashed
in on Poland’s transition and represented the richer western half of the
country, known as “Poland A,” and treated the eastern, poorer half —
“Poland B” — with disdain.
The same messaging is at work in PiS’s current standoff
with the European Commission. In Kaczyński’s version, the crisis
prompted by concerns about rule of law and democracy in Poland is really
about something else: arrogant Brussels bureaucrats and their supporters in
Warsaw who don’t understand the needs and aspirations of average Poles.
PiS is
presenting the crisis as one more example of Brussels overreach. Poland is now
firmly with Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which all resent Brussels
over a wide range of issues, especially the proposal to force all members to
accept a set number of migrants. This Euroskeptic bloc is forming what
could be called a “European Union B.”
Poles are among the strongest supporters of the EU, but there is a minority in favor of
loosening ties with the EU. Some even voice support for a so-called
“Polexit.” The constitutional standoff with Brussels over Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal could
move more Poles in that direction.
“Obsessed with the idea of instant and
total integration, we failed to notice that ordinary people, the citizens of
Europe, do not share our Euro-enthusiasm,” Donald Tusk, president of the
European Council and a former Polish prime minister, said at a recent meeting of the
European People’s Party.
PiS is betting that it can leverage that
hostility towards the Brussels elites to help win the present battle.
The key to victory for them is to drag it out until December. That’s
when current tribunal chief justice, Andrzej Rzepliński, is due to step
down, and his replacement could be more amenable to PiS.
Last week, the Commission issued an
opinion on Poland’s adherence to European law. Though it wasn’t made
public, the Commission’s stance is hardly a secret: It urges Poland’s ruling
party to seat three justices appointed by the previous parliament to
the Constitutional Tribunal. PiS has thus far refused to recognize those
judges.
The ruling
party last year changed how the tribunal operates. The tribunal
itself later ruled the law was unconstitutional. The government has
ignored the verdict, which the EU wants it to accept.
The Commission has never before launched a
rule of law probe against a member state. To get its message across,
Kaczyński’s party is belittling the unprecedented nature of Brussels’
intervention, which could lead eventually to the suspension of Poland’s EU
voting rights. “An opinion is an opinion, and it doesn’t have any influence on decisions
being taken in Poland,” said Prime Minister Beata Szydło.
PiS contrasts the supposedly
pettifogging approach of Brussels bureaucrats with all the hard work its
politicians are doing on behalf of the Polish people.
“Most of my time today has been spent on
working on Apartment+,” Szydło told me in an email, referring to a new
low-cost housing program announced late last week. “That’s the difference
between the Polish government and the Brussels bureaucracy. We are taking care
of the problems of the people; we speak a language they understand, while the
Brussels administration is involved with itself. Will the procedure launched by the EC in any way improve the life of the average Kowalski? Does the
technocratic opinion of well-paid Brussels bureaucrats help solve the housing
problems of Poles?”
The mix of
populist economics and a sense of grievance at the arrogance of the
previous government is why an ongoing purge of state media,
government ministries, and state-controlled companies has been greeted with
enthusiasm among the party’s core electorate.
Kaczyński is using that same
playbook in his standoff with Brussels. Unfeeling Eurocrats play the role
of villains. The Commission’s current approach only helps Kaczyński by
feeding that narrative. He has called into question the Commission’s
authority to even begin such a process, threatening to appeal the case before
the EU’s Court of Justice.
His response is even more aggressive than
the approach Viktor Orbán took
when Hungary came under EU fire for not adhering to democratic principles. The
Hungarian prime minister was conciliatory toward Brussels, but flexed his
muscles back home. Kaczyński doesn’t make any distinction between foreign and
domestic audiences
PiS will only agree to end the crisis on
its own terms. Kaczyński wants a bill on the Constitutional Tribunal that seeks
a “compromise” to the crisis to be taken up in parliament, where PiS has a
clear majority. The bill includes measures that the tribunal has already ruled
unconstitutional, and would finesse the issue of the three justices elected by
the previous parliament, whom President Andrzej Duda refuses to swear in Poland’s ruling party won’t back down, but
can Brussels? Acquiescing to PiS would mean ending a damaging conflict with the
bloc’s sixth-largest member, but also turning a blind eye to democratic abuses.
Pushing forward with the probe may support the noble goal of securing the rule
of law in Poland, but it may also cement a “European Union B.”
Norbert Maliszewski is a political
scientist at the University of Warsaw.
This article has been corrected to
remove redundant words in the second paragraph.
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