The European Union is on track to
renew economic sanctions on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine when they expire
in July, though an extension could be contested and only short-term, diplomats
and officials said.
The 28-strong EU needs unanimity
to keep the sanctions in place and the bloc's unity has been increasingly
tested on that.
While some states stress the
resurgent Russia has not delivered on commitments in the so-called Minsk peace
process for east Ukraine, others want to restore trade ties with Moscow.
EU foreign policy chief Federica
Mogherini told German newspaper Die Welt on Thursday she expected the energy,
financial and defense sanctions to be renewed.
"EU heads of state or
government had tied the lifting of the sanctions to a full implementation of
the Minsk Agreements. So far, this has not been reached," Mogherini said
in an interview.
"There have always been
different opinions on some elements of our sanction policy. It will probably
stay that way...What is important is that we keep this unity and decide all
together."
The EU slapped sanctions on Russia
after Moscow annexed Crimea from Ukraine in March 2014. It stepped them up
later that year as the Kremlin backed rebels fighting Ukrainian troops in east
Ukraine, where more than 9,000 people have been killed.
The EU says it will ease sanctions
only upon Russia's full implementation of the Minsk agreements, but progress on
applying the peace accords - negotiated by Berlin and Paris - has stalled for
months.
Moscow and Kiev blame each other
for failing to stick to the deal, which includes organizing local elections in
east Ukraine, restoring Kiev's control over the whole border with Russia, and
the withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the conflict zone.
Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Hungary and
Bulgaria are among EU states skeptical that sanctions should be extended,
diplomats say, facing off against Britain, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic
states.
"I don't see how we could not
extend them in July. The conditions, including Minsk, are not met," said
one EU official.
Another official said the most
likely scenario was a six-month extension, adding that G7 leaders would discuss
the matter at their next summit in Japan on May 26-27 as the EU and the United
States aim to keep a joint stance on Russia.
Last year, G7 leaders meeting in
Germany vowed to keep sanctions in place until Russia fully implements the
terms of the peace deal. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi later briefly
opposed extending the restrictive measures at the end of 2015, but eventually
fell into line.
A RETHINK TOWARD YEAR-END
Sources said Renzi sounded more
critical of Moscow and signaled no opposition to extending sanctions this time
around at a meeting last month between the leaders of Britain, France, Germany
and Italy with U.S. President Barack Obama.
"If Ukraine does its homework
and Russia continues to be an obstacle, then an extension of the sanctions
shouldn't be a problem," a senior German official said. "Renzi may
not be the big hurdle in the sanctions debate that he has been."
Opposition - but not a full-on
veto - could come from Slovakia, Hungary and Greece, according to EU sources.
"They all want to say
something loud to help their business relationships with Moscow. But I would
not expect them to block an extension," a senior EU official said.
However, even though the EU makes
easing sanctions conditional on the full implementation of the Minsk accords,
there are growing doubts about whether the troubled peace process has much of a
future left.
While it helped to sharply
decrease violence in east Ukraine, it has failed to resolve the conflict. The
questions is what should follow if Minsk sponsors declare it dead.
In saying the EU policy would not
change yet, Mogherini signaled a broader review of policy later this year:
"In the second half of the year," she told Die Welt, "EU
governments should make a substantive political evaluation on the degree of
implementation of the Minsk Agreement, and on how the way forward toward
solving the conflict in Ukraine looks like."
Other types of EU sanctions on
Moscow, namely the restrictions on economic relations with Russia-annexed
Crimea and travel blacklists on Russian officials and individuals, expire in
late June and mid-September, respectively.
That means that even if the
economic measures are renewed now, there are likely to be more heated
discussions on the EU's stance on Russia in the second half of the year.
"There may be some problems
this time around but I expect no drama," said another EU official.
"The real drama we see coming in December."
(Reporting by Gabriela Baczynska
and Alastair Macdonald in Brussels, Andreas Rinke and Noah Barkin in Berlin,
Writing by Gabriela Baczynska, Editing by)
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