BY
As stated in an entry some months ago when there was some doubt over the
formation of a new Cabinet of Ministers materialising, Ms Tymoshenko and the
political vehicle the serves her (Batkivshchyna) had already begun
electioneering – with her trademark usual populist nonsense and Robert
Mugabe-esque economics naturally to the fore.
That pre-election electioneering has not stopped – quite the opposite, it
seems to be gathering momentum.
A reader may ponder just how such flapdoodle is financed – and will
continue to be financed for months ahead – considering the amount of prime
media time she is commanding (compared to others).
(A reader may also cynically ponder as to just why the media still bows to
her ego and accepts her prerequisites that former investigative journalists
turned MPs such as Sergei Leshchenko must have left any television studio
prior to her arrival and subsequent populist monologue.)
Ms Tymoshenko is clearly aiming to gather in the pensioner vote (in the
absence of the Communist Party and now defunct Party of Regions) and the
agrarian vote too, in an effort to add them to her traditional and fairly solid
13% of the constituency. (Somebody has to try and win over the old
Communist voter base, so why not Ms Tymoshenko, and why not start now?)
Whilst President Poroshenko continues to broadcast the actions of Russia,
as indeed he should for Russia will remain a significant threat (through its
various measures) to Ukraine far, far into the future, the domestic
constituency sees reform as the most necessary and top ranking issue facing
Ukraine – and quite rightly.
The net result is that President Poroshenko, now perceived to control the
Prime Minister and Prosecutor General (how long before the Interior Minister is
replaced by a Poroshenko man?) is fully responsible for all progress and ills
of the nation domestically (as well as internationally) despite stated
constitutional responsibilities. Thus only reforms will save President
Poroshenko at the ballot box – regardless of how much he may prefer to orate of
the dastardly and illegal deeds of The Kremlin.
Likewise only reforms will save his prodigy as Prime Minister and (latest)
chosen man to head the PGO – and it is these people that face a far more
immediate and difficult political horizon when it comes to potential early
national ballots and securing sections of the demographic voter base as a
foundation.
It is perhaps interesting therefore to note the comments of Davit Sakvarelidze of 24th May in
Kharkiv – for they indicate the voter base demographic that any new Saakashvili
associated and/or led, party will be targeting – that of the Ukrainian SME.
It is not a demographic that will easily take to the populist nonsense of
Ms Tymoshenko, nor will it feel represented by the remnants of Party Regions
under the various flags these parliamentarians will be flying, for historically
they are associated with big business and the oligarchy.
Samopomich still remains too provincial to capture the imagination of SMEs
nationally, the Radicals have nothing to offer by way of competent policy, and
thus far the Poroshenko (and to be annihilated at the next election) People’s
Front coalition are perceived to have completely failed SMEs – even to the
point of not providing the most basic of “idiots guide” to the newly opened EU
market via the DCFTA..
SMEs therefore would appear to be fertile ground for a new party – and a
new party supported by and/or led by Misha Saakashvili there will be in
preparation for the inevitable early Verkhovna Rada elections.
It seems hardly a difficult matter to create a party manifesto based upon
repealing so much legislative and bureaucratic codswallop that currently
suppresses and thwarts SMEs and entrepreneurs in Ukraine – even if that is all
that is in a party manifesto.
Indeed any manifesto that promises nothing other than repealing current
legislative nonsense may prove to be far more popular than the usual populist
promises of quick (and unachievable) fixes based upon Zambian economic theory,
or providing subsidies far beyond anything responsible governance would allow.
As is often the case with policy, legislation, and governance, less is more
– so why not in a party manifesto?
The target for any new Saakashvili supported and/or led party would be
(realistically) to achieve approximately 20% of the national vote – for no
other party seems likely to reach 20% of the national vote. That would
leave them in a solid position for coalition building – or opposition.
(To be blunt it seems unlikely that any party will pass the 20% mark at
the time of writing, and the last polls seen by the blog had a Misha
Saakashvili anointed political entity currently only half way to that 20%
nationally – prior to identifying a target demographic.)
The question to be asked therefore, now that the demographic of SMEs has
been identified by Mr Sakvarelidze as the target for any Saakashvili
blessed political entity, is how any such political party will frame what it
will do for this vital section of the society/economy.
A humble suggestion would be to work on the “less is more” principle,
publicly and repeatedly identifying what obstacles and legislation will be
removed and repealed to ease the SME burden – that and to begin an education
programme posthaste for SMEs regarding how to achieve market entrance to the EU
as a preparatory electioneering act – which would be far more useful when it
comes to potential voter traction than any voter listening to a prime time
monologue delivered by Ms Tymoshenko.
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