Armenians have had an
ambivalent feeling toward Russia since independence in 1991.
On the one hand, they are
grateful that Russia’s defeat of Persia — today’s Iran — in the early 1800s
prevented the destruction of Armenian civilization.
They are also grateful that
#Russia has been the guarantor of Armenia’s military security since the
break-up of the Soviet Union 25 years ago.
That arrangement is actually
part of official Armenian military doctrine.
But Armenians are also
painfully aware that their nation continues to be one of the poorest in the
former Soviet Union — and many believe this reflects Russia’s long subjugation
of their country.
That’s why many Armenians
wanted Armenia to join the European Union rather than the Russian-led Eurasian
Economic Union that Moscow bullied Yerevan into joining in 2013.
Armenians who had supported EU
membership believed the country would have a better standard of living as part
of the more prosperous West.
After all, a century of
Russian-led Soviet rule and then Russian Federation economic dominance had
failed to raise Armenian living standards.
That was why, in the fall of 2013,
protests erupted when President Serzh Sargsyan made a 180-degree turn and
scuttled Armenia’s plans to enter into an EU association agreement — a
precursor to full EU membership. The announcement of the about-face came just
hours after Sargsyan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in what everyone
knew was a Kremlin arm-twisting session.
Armenians also have become
aware that Russia’s motive for guaranteeing their military security is not
altogether altruistic — that is, a big brother protecting a smaller one just to
be nice.
In fact, some of the Armenians
who protested the decision to join the Eurasian Economic Union also called for
an end to the Russian military presence in Armenia.
It’s now apparent that Russia
is developing Armenia as a staging base that could be used to strike
neighboring countries opposed to Russian military adventures in the region.
The first evidence of that
surfaced two decades ago — and recent developments have only reinforced the
notion.
Under a defense agreement
between Russia and Armenia in the late 1990s, Russian troops — not Armenian
ones — were assigned to patrol Armenia’s borders with Turkey and Iran.
The message to Turkey and Iran
was unmistakable: A border problem with Armenia would not lead just to a war
with Armenia but also to one with Russia.
Additional evidence of the
staging-base notion is that both Russian bases in Armenia — one an army post
and another an air base — are near the Turkish border.
Further evidence is that in
recent years Russia has sent a host of arms to Armenia’s military, starting
with an $800 million shipment in 2010. The weapons have included Iskander-M
surface-to-surface missiles capable of landing deep inside other countries in
the region.
And in just the past few
months Russia has beefed up the military hardware at its bases in Armenia and
agreed to sell an additional array of advanced weapons to the Armenian
military.
The weapons Russia has added
to its bases at Gyumri and Erebuni include MiG-29 fighters, Mi-24 helicopter
gunships and Navodchik-2 and Takiun aerial drones.
In February of 2016 it
announced it was selling $200 million worth of arms to Armenia.
It said those weapons would
include multiple-launch rocket systems, anti-tank missiles, handheld
antiaircraft missiles, radar-jamming systems, armored personnel carriers,
sniper rifles and tank upgrades.
The most recent round of
Russian arms deployments to Armenia, and its agreement to send even more, go
beyond possible threats to Armenia. They are also related to the Kremlin’s
military adventures in Syria.
Russia began a bombing
campaign against opponents of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria in September
of 2015.
In November of 2015, Turkey
downed a Russian warplane that it had repeatedly warned to stay out of its
airspace.
Moscow was furious, and
promised consequences.
It has since added new weapons
at its Syrian bases that could bring down Turkish warplanes, and continued its
encroachments on Turkish airspace, basically daring Turkey to try to stop it.
Russia has also levied
economic sanctions against Turkey.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has
made another move that will increase tensions in the region: It has announced
it will sell advanced Sukhoi-30 fighter jets and S-300 air-defense missiles to
Turkey’s Middle East rival Iran.
Those involved in the Syrian
conflict — including Russia and the United States, which has been bombing ISIS
forces — recently forged a cease-fire that just went into effect.
Whether it will hold — and the
broader question of who will ultimately rule Syria — remain to be answered.
One thing the conflict has
shown is that Russia is intent on throwing its weight around even in countries
outside its traditional sphere of influence.
And the resources it can draw
on to do that include its staging bases in Armenia.
Armine Sahakyan is a human
rights activist based in Armenia. A columnist with the Kyiv Post and a blogger
with The Huffington Post, she writes on human rights and democracy in Russia
and the former Soviet Union. Follow
her on Twitter at:www.twitter.com/ArmineSahakyann
Related post: Yerevan: Russia To Loan Armenia $200M For Arms
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