POSTED IN GENERAL IMMIGRATION NEWS AND UPDATES
For FY 2017, the US Citizenship and Immigration
Services (USCIS) received approximately 236,000 cap-subject H-1B
petitions—which is more than last year by about 3,000 petitions.
Because
the number of available spots remained the same, the odds of “winning” the H-1B
Cap Lottery are slightly worse than last year.
Using the limited information available
and basic mathematical calculations, simple math shows that the overall odds of
receiving a number in the FY 2017 H-1B cap are just over 33%. If you
deduct the 20,000 advanced degree “winners” from the total 236,000 petitions,
and re-calculate, the odds decrease to just over 26% for the remaining
petitions which include both the unselected advanced degree petitions and the
regular cap petitions.
This compares to my FY 2016 calculations
of about 34% for the Master’s cap and only approximately 27% for the regular
cap. For FY 2015 H-1B my calculations indicated that the odds were about
43% under the regular cap, with still better chances for those with a Master’s
or higher degree at approximately 50%.
So each year, the odds of being selected in the
lottery have decreased. This year, however, the difference is much less
dramatic than the change between FY 2015 and FY 2016. Perhaps the
economic improvement of recent years has stabilized and demand for highly specialized
workers is leveling out. Or, it could be that some pressure for H-1B
numbers was alleviated due to the eligibility of certain H-4 spouses for work
authorization. (See my blog post H-4
EAD Applications Accepted Beginning May 26, 2015: Are you that “certain
spouse”? at http://immigrationview.foxrothschild.com/general-immigration-news-and-updates/h-4-ead-applications-accepted-beginning-may-26-2015-are-you-that-certain-spouse/.) Nobody can say for sure.
What we do know is that USCIS completed its
computer-generated random selection process (i.e.,lottery selection) on April 9th. Receipt
notices (I-797 Notices of Action to acknowledge petition receipt) are still
being sent. Will you be one of the lucky winners? Time will tell
whether your petition is selected in the lottery or it will be one of the over
approximately 150,000 petitions that will be rejected and returned to
employers.
For more information regarding the “odds” during FY
2016 and FY 2015, please see my prior blog posts captioned, FY 2016 H-1B Cap:
What are the Odds? at http://immigrationview.foxrothschild.com/general-immigration-news-and-updates/fy-2016-h-1b-cap-what-are-the-odds/
and FY
2015 H-1B Cap:
What are the Odds? at http://immigrationview.foxrothschild.com/h-1b-temporary-workers/fy-2015-h-1b-cap-what-are-the-odds/.
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