Ten days ago an
entry appeared regarding the gaze of the reform orientated activists moving from the
Odessa Prosecutor’s Office, having successfully ejected Nikolay Stoyanov from
the role (albeit after he had closed a lot of cases into local vested interests
and nefariousness), to that of City Hall and Mayor Trukhanov.
In short, the entry stated that flush with success at the Prosecutor’s
Office in Odessa, the social activists would simulate their 24/7 protests
outside City Hall.
Mayor Trukhanov (and City Hall) have aroused their ire after entirely
inappropriate construction schemes on the historic Fransuski Boulevard,
numerous secretive departmental meetings with no public input into decision
making, abhorrent, (and in defiance of local ordnance), inconsiderate
construction in the historic city centre, the usual graft and inept use
of the city budget, and notwithstanding the 20 (or more) offshore companies the
Panama Papers linked to the Trukhanov name, together with his (alleged) holding
a Russian passport.
As stated in that entry, the weather gets warmer and the 24/7 protests far
easier to endure than was the case for the far cooler and wetter weather during
the prosecutor protests.
The problem for Mayor Trukhanov therefore is that the protests are not
about to disappear quickly.
Having already employed the Homo Sovieticus modus operandi of
ignore, deny, deflect/distract to no avail, the entry stated – “The Homo
Sovieticus doctrine regarding steps for further escalation are likely to make
matters worse rather than better….”
With the second anniversary of the 2nd May tragedy, 9th May Victory Day,
and Governor Saakashvili’s first anniversary on 15th May, the coming fortnight
may well become quite tense. It may even boil over occasionally. Thus
escalation outside City Hall, as stated, would make matters worse rather than
better in the lead up to so many difficult anniversary dates.
Having a 24/7 protest outside City Hall is clearly annoying for some within
– particularly when visiting dignitaries are visibly reminded of the Mayor’s
close association with organised criminality, and of the City Hall reputation
for generally ignoring the rule of law and its own protocols and ordnance,
notwithstanding graft and thievery.
It was with more than a little suspicion that greeted the announcement of
City Hall’s politically
controlled Praetorian Guard under the banner of “City Watch” which would
help the police to police – despite having no legitimate powers to do so
outside those granted to any and every citizen of Ukraine during the commission
of crimes against a person or property.
Those protesting outside City Hall immediately perceived the “City Watch”
entity as little more than a rent-a-mob/titushek/illegitimate paramilitary
controlled by City Hall that would inevitably come into conflict with
themselves when commanded by the politicians to do so. The timing of the
announcement therefore perceived as a shot across the protester bow then
comfortably encamped outside City Hall.
However, the inevitable violence came during the night of 25/26th April.
Having gone without any incident outside the Prosecutors Office in Odessa
for 17 days, in far shorter time period outside City Hall the
titushek/rent-a-mob struck.
The tents were destroyed, protesters belongings were thrown into the back
of a Kamaz truck, the protesters were beaten – some quite badly.
In short, the predicted escalation surrounding the events outside City Hall
materialised – and will make matters worse and not better.in all probability.
There is now a further societal complaint – and one which is likely to
swell rather than reduce protester numbers – that complaint being the absence
of the rule of law even outside the Mayor’s office front door (which
“mysteriously” are not caught on CCTV).
A reader may ponder that surely Mayor Trukhanov, albeit Homo Sovieticus to
the core, would have realised that such an escalation would have significant
risks – particularly as it was the beating of protesters that was the
escalation that doomed former President Yanukovych and cemented the resolve of
EuroMaidan/Revolution of Dignity. Even Mayor Trukhanov is not that
politically retarded to have failed to have learned that lesson – and even if
he is, the wily, politically lithe, poisonous chamberlains that surround Mayor
Trukhanov, such as Oleg Bryndak, certainly will not have forgotten.
Then again, maybe it is a double bluff in order to come out looking like
the victim when indeed being the instigator.
Nevertheless, if to accept Mayor Trukhanov has successfully suppressed his
Homo Sovieticus and organised crime instincts to crack the skulls of those that
protest outside his place of work, then who managed to gather together
approximately 40 titushek/rent-a-mob to attack the protesters and destroy their
belongings in the middle of the night?
Who else gains from this escalation – and how?
The ever-slippery Oleg Bryndak was quick to publicly point the finger at
Governor Saakashvili and his team. His claim being that they need results
and to force their agenda before the Governor’s anniversary this attack somehow
significantly advances their cause.
Not only that, Mr Bryndak claimed that Governor Saakashvili’s people were
behind an RPG-18 attack upon a Pivdennyi Bank headquarters the previous night.
Naturally a reader now asks why Pivdennyi Bank?
The blog will state only two things. Firstly there is now a very close
association between somebody in the City Hall treasury and the board of
Pivdenniya Bank that appears to be questionable in its nature. Secondly the OCCRP are looking at Pivvdenyi Bank too, although as yet they have
published nothing.
The bank is very well run – but neither the OCCRP nor
the interest of the Governor’s team is peaked by its daily operations.
There are other reasons. For now, that is all that will be written
regarding Pivdennyi Bank.
Whatever – when throwing accusations around, “in for a penny, in for a
pound” it appears. In short Mr Bryndak claims this is all a continuing
provocation aimed at Mayor Trukhanov and City Hall by the Oblast
Administration.
Also, the list of those happy to blame the Governor from the Odessa
political class is also probably more notable for the few not on it, rather
than the majority that are.
Well perhaps, but Governor Saakashvili has just announced a major political
win with President Poroshenko publicly “on board” with the Governor’s road to Romania project. Prime Minister Groisman has
announced a national customs reform programme will be unveiled within two
months which seems likely to closely resemble the Governor’s project at Odessa
Port. The Odessa Port project therefore cannot be allowed to collapse
under the enormous pressure of vested interests. Even with a
half-competent and reasonably honest appointment to Odessa Regional Prosecutor,
and the wind would appear to be blowing (even if only slightly and temporarily)
the Governor’s way.
Whether that proves to be enough for the Governor to stay, and whether his
anticipated leaving be his decision or the President’s over the coming
fortnight remains to be seen. Perhaps he will stay for a while longer,
for there is at least 6 months before any early Verkhovna Rada elections can be
seriously contemplated. How much does it matter?
The battlefield for Misha Saakashvili is far bigger than Odessa, and the
“pocket Generals” of Odessa are unlikely to match him in a far bigger war
theatre. Both reformers and vested interests have won and lost battles in
Odessa, but it is winning the war that will ultimately decide the fate of those
fighting the Odessa battles.
Indeed, it will be a long war with many more battles along the way.
It appears that only the jailing of the Field Marshals of the Vested
Interests will in any way change the context in which their regional “pocket
Generals” fight.
So if not the Governor or his team, then who?
There are of course the vested interests and “pocket Generals”, some of
whom have little liking for either Mayor Trukhanov or Governor Saakashvili –
Messrs Kivalov and Skoryk, the protagonists/ideologues behind the political push for an Odessa porto
franco being
certainly among them, and both having a history
employing titushek/rent-a-mob to further their causes.
The list does not necessarily end their either.
This is clearly a politically manipulated titushek-fronted incident.
There are others that would take no small degree of glee from putting Mayor
Trukhanov under pressure. For example former Mayor Eduard Gurvitz, friend
of Sergei Kivalov, and not unknown to the Governor Saakshvili camp, has a
particular and personal dislike for the man who currently runs City Hall.
There are yet others too but there is no need to go on, suffice to say that
there are numerous political interests, some obvious and some less so, that
could benefit from the titushek attack on the protesters.
The question therefore is discovering which one is behind this particular
incident, and will it ever become known?
It seems that of the 40 people involved in the assaults on the protesters,
and damage to their property, 5 were arrested by the police and criminal
proceedings against them under Part 4 Article 296 of the Criminal code of
Ukraine have begun.
Whether those that hired them will be identified remains to be seen.
Such people can be “professional Russians” one day, “professional animal
rights” another, and “professional tree huggers” on yet another – depending
upon who is paying for their muscle/actions.
It may very well be that they have no idea who ultimately sponsored/paid
for their group, simply turning up, taking the money and doing their deeds.
Alternatively once their faces/names become known, it may well be that
they are regularly seen in the company of certain aforementioned personalities.
Time will tell.
In the meantime, looking forward toward the Easter holiday, 2nd May
anniversary, 9th May Victory Day and 15th May anniversary of Governor
Saakashvili’s arrival, it may well prove to be a very testy time in Odessa –
particularly so when there seems to be a good deal of deliberate political
agitation currently coming from well known and old school odious personalities.
Governor Saakashvili has asked the President for the National Guard to be
deployed – the National Guard has refused stating that the police should be able to
cope and that the National Guard does not get involved with politically
engineered shenanigans. (A note to the National Guard, neither should the
police, but rule of law must be upheld (as best they can)).
Let us hope that the National Guard is right and that the Governor’s call
to the President is something of an overreaction. Perhaps it is.
Giorgi Lortkipanidze appears a very reasonable police commander.
Neither President nor National Guard/Ministry of Internal Affairs will
look particularly clever if despite the best efforts of the police matters
spiral out of control, or spread over a wide geographical area however.
Whatever the case, the next week will be well spent politically attempting
to defuse what has been artificially and purposely politically created after
this recent and violent escalation. It would be perhaps wise for those
behind this political pantomime to remember that among any casualties that may
result from their nonsense, they may ultimately be included in that number.
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