BY
Rumour has it
that on or before the 15th March a new Cabinet of Ministers will have been
formed and the horse-trading, shuffling behind the curtain, and sorcery of the
party “Grey Cardinals/High Chamberlains” will have concluded.
Those rumours
include the replacement of Prime Minister Yatseniuk, whether he voluntarily
resign or is subjected to a personal vote of “no confidence”, his government
having collectively only last week surviving a collective vote of “no
confidence”.
Whether he
would survive a personal vote of “no confidence” we will soon see – but it
seems unlikely.
Tipped to
replace him is the current Finance Minister Natalia Jaresko.
For regular
readers of this blog with a reasonable memory, this should come as no surprise.
On 26th October 2015,
when it was already clear Mr Yatseniuk’s days in office were numbered, this
blog stated – “To be blunt, Ms Jaresko
would be the only realistic possibility that could gather a domestic political
consensus and also enjoy the support of friendly external supporters and donors
in a change of Cabinet (rather than elections) – but is she interested? She
would probably take the role out of a sense of obligation to Ukraine to avoid
internal implosion, but that does not equate to wanting the role.
Notwithstanding a serious corruption fumble between now and any
ouster/resignation of PM Yatseniuk, she is perhaps the only “consensus
alternative.”
This blog also
predicted early Verkhovna Rada elections before the year end 2016 too –
immediately after the October 2014 Verkhovna Rada elections – That
prediction was based solely upon the fact that almost every single parliament
Ukraine has had since independence in 1991, has effectively ceased to function
within 2 years of election.
Whether a
reformatted Cabinet of Ministers and a Prime Minister Jaresko will change that
prediction will very much depend upon the Cabinet composition that is
forthcoming and the desires of those behind the Ukrainian political curtain.
That it will prevent early Verkhovna Rada elections at some point is very
unlikely, but the timing of such may change.
A Prime
Minister Jaresko and new Cabinet may manage to see Ukraine through the UK
Brexit referendum (and therefore perhaps a more outward looking UK on the other
side), a new incoming US President, and elections in both Germany and France in
2017 with their respective outcomes. For the powers before and behind the
Ukrainian political curtain, these events, with the removal of PM Yatseniuk and
several ministers, may be enough to reconsider the almost inevitable early
Verkhovna Rada election time frame predicted almost for this Autumn almost 2
years ago – or not.
It is rumoured
that Boris Lozhkin, and Dmitry Shymkiv, both currently Head and Deputy Head of
the Presidential Administration respectively, will become Deputy Prime
Ministers, and that the current Deputy Economy Minister Yulia Kuznetsova
will become Energy Minister. If true a reasonable start, and far from the
worst of possible suggested Cabinet reshuffles. Other names will be
undoubtedly “leaked” over the coming days/week. Your author will know
more on Sunday.
Nevertheless,
regardless of any subsequent Cabinet composition or new PM, whatever policy
then flows from it will require the support of the current parliamentarians
(and those behind many of them) for it to be effective – and those policies are
not likely to be very different from those of PM Yatseniuk and current Cabinet
as many are shaped by IMF and Association Agreement obligations.
All change –
or no change? A new lease of sustained productive parliamentary life – or
a stay of parliamentary execution?
Let’s see who
forms the new Cabinet and how long it lasts.
Related post: A PM Natalie Jaresko – Aunique opportunity?
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