With Putin’s lateral side-step to Syria, much
of the world’s attention to strategic matters moved away from Eastern
Europe—which might explain why the Georgian Dream government in Tbilisi thought
it was a good moment to persecute the main opposition TV channel Rustavi 2. And
why Russian proxies are attacking in Ukraine again. During the bad old days of
the Cold War, the Western world understood that Moscow coordinated its actions throughout
the Eastern Bloc in places like Tbilisi and other areas of influence. We saw
the significance of such a seemingly remote event. The Kremlin acted
wholistically; the world understood that. These days, you’re considered
something of a Jeremiah having lurid visions if you argue that Russia
orchestrates the sequence, timing and polemical uses of far-flung geo-strategic
events.
Let’s
look at recent chronology and see what it yields, prima facie, about the Kremlin’s coordination:
Ceasefire in Ukraine followed by military
incursion into Syria
Ukrainian local elections preceded by a smear
job on former President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, now governor of Odessa
Same smear job used to justify Tbilisi’s
crackdown on pro-Saakashvili TV Channel Rustavi 2 in Georgia
Now for most
Westerners this switching between countries causes the mind to swim so they
switch off instead. (Ukraine
and Georgia at the same time, but aren’t they different countries?) The Kremlin knows this full well from years of
post-Soviet impunity. Distraction and disinformation surround every action, not
least for Russian domestic consumption. The next incident, the horrific ISIS
bombing of the Russian tourists’ aircraft, instantly triggered a sudden spike in renewed
attacks by pro-Russians on the Ukrainian
front. This happened, in tandem with a blizzard of Russian media speculation
about how the CIA was possibly complicit in the atrocity,
or even Britain’s M16.
Drill
down a little more and you get a fascinating education in how deliberately
Moscow’s propaganda machine works. Having arrived at an impasse in Ukraine
under pressure from global sanctions, Putin moved onto Syria. Distraction—then
disinformation. On the eve of Ukrainian local elections, reports of a Saakashvili
phone conversation advocating violent revolution in Georgia appears all over Georgian media. The
source, they claim, is Wikileaks Ukraine. Keep in mind that a pro-Saakashvili
candidate is running for mayor in Odessa against a pro-Russian candidate (who
won). The Ukrainian local elections matter to Moscow. But the leak is first
funneled through Georgia with the apparently legitimizing tag of Wikileaks
Ukraine, thereby imitating the democratic grass-roots voice of Euromaidan
truth-telling. Therefore everyone initially thinks it has to be believable.
The post
later turns out to originate physically from an IP address in Russia. But in
the meantime the damage is done. The leak says Saakashvili is advocating
physical resistance against the Georgian government’s assault on the
independent TV station. True enough. But it says more. It says he’s trying to
provoke confrontation in Tblisi order to overthrow the Georgian Dream
government. Above all, a truly slimy thread runs through the leak in which
Saakashvili seems to embrace the prospect of children being hurt as a way to enhance
the provocation.
If you don’t know recent Georgian history you won’t know
the meaning of that. You have to go back to the Georgian national elections of
2012. On October 1, the day of the 2012 national election, which Saakashvili’s
party lost, the opposition accused his government of drowning a child in the
wine vat of a private house as an act of intimidation because the child’s uncle
worked for the opposition. At the time, a dark cloud already hung over the
country (and Saakashvili) in the wake of deeply unpleasant prison abuse videos
leaked just a week before—even though the videos manifestly originated from
Georgian mafia sources. Election Day proceeded with the Russians openly
threatening to invade anew in case of civil strife in Georgia, while the
opposition leader threatened to cause just that if Saakashvili won.
Understandably, the public opted for a quiet life. A kind of mass Stockholm
syndrome gripped the country. Saakashvili’s activism and confronting of Russia
got tarred with causing all the trouble. (Some months later the dead infant’s
mother retracted the accusations against Saakashvili’s party.)
So, the
recent Wikileaks’ unmistakable message to Odessans and Ukrainians must be
understood against that background echo spilling over from the past Georgian election. Get it? Saakashvili only causes
strife and grief. If bad things happen, it’s only because of Saakashvili’s
megalomania. Look, he’s trying to meddle in both Georgia and Ukraine. He
doesn’t care about Ukraine or Odessa. And he will bring the same dark times and
doings to Odessa as he did to Georgia. That’s the message. Now let’s look
closely at the recent leaks. The posted transcript allegedly came from a
conversation between now governor Saakashvili and one of his allies within
Georgia. Some days after the purported transcript is posted, actual audio of
the conversation is posted. The fake transcript had Saakashvili saying the
following—which never happened in the audio version: “If a woman dies that will
be better, even better if it’s a woman with children” among other callous
statements.
By the time
that the real recording came out (illegally wiretapped and leaked) the details
merged and got confused. The smear travelled around the Russosphere at just the
right time. It wasn’t until over a week after that, on November 7, that a group
of young Ukrainian media activists released an analysis in Russian detailing how the recent transcripts fit into a
pattern of Kremlin disinformation especially through the channel of “Ukrainian”
Wikileaks. But by then, the elections already took place in Odessa, Rustavi 2
was raided, and its management sacked and replaced by government loyalists.
In
fact, both Saakashvili and his allies everywhere should engage in both countries, resist with
their bodies if necessary because they’re resisting Moscow proxies throughout
the former Soviet bloc. The Kremlin is coordinating to dominate the region and
the region’s democratic activists must coordinate in response. Putin has a huge
advantage because he operates ruthlessly and monolithically, invades and kills
and muzzles in order to shape public opinion, reigns as a leader for life. He
launched into Syria knowing the potential cost of taking on ISIS, but he had to
create another crisis after Ukraine to maintain nationalist fervor in Russia.
Innocent Russian tourists paid with their lives. His propaganda organs, by word
and deed, rose to the occasion with blood and lies. So the conflict in Ukraine
was reignited to distract from ISIS. In effect, Ukrainians had to die to
distract from Putin’s misstep in Syria. That’s how geo-strategically the
Kremlin works.
In the Cold
War we understood that. It’s time to understand it again.
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