Five Russian generals are playing a key role in
organizing and commanding separatist forces inside Ukraine, according to a
dossier provided by Ukraine's security service to the Obama administration last
month.
The document, obtained by us, is a consensus product of the
Security Service of Ukraine and dated June 16. It identifies five Russian
generals and a Russian colonel as playing a senior leadership role inside
Ukraine. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied that Russian military personnel are
directing military operations inside the country. Top Ukrainian intelligence
officials shared the document with White House, State Department and U.S.
intelligence officials in Washington late last month.
U.S. officials have confirmed receiving the document
and told us that the information it contains generally conforms to U.S.
intelligence assessments of Russian activity inside Ukraine. For more than a
year, U.S. and NATO officials have accused Russia's special operations forces
and its military intelligence agency of aiding separatists in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian intelligence document goes further than
previous public information by accusing specific Russian generals of being
involved. These include Major General Oleg Mussovich Tsekov, who it says
commands two brigades of the Luhansk People's Militia, and Major General
Valerii Nikolaevich Solodchuk, accused of commanding the first army corps of
the separatist Novorossia armed forces in Donetsk. Other officers named include
Major General Sergey Yurievich Kuzovlev, who it says commands regular Russian
military operations in the Luhansk region and Major General Aleksei Vladimirovich
Zavizion, who commands and coordinates Russian military operations in the
Donetsk region. The dossier identifies Major General Roman Aleksandrovich
Shadrin as the minister of state security for the Luhansk People's Republic. It
also says Colonel Anatolii Konstantinovich Barankevich, a former minister of
defense for the Georgian breakaway republic of South Ossetia, serves as an
adviser for combat readiness for the Luhansk People's Republic.
Mark Galeotti, an expert on the Russian security
services at New York University, told us that the Ukrainian intelligence
document for the most part confirmed what he has learned about Russia's role in
Ukraine. He said the identification of the Russian generals represented an
important development. "Up to now you have seen Russians lieutenants,
captains and majors in Ukraine," he said. "But now they are
actually embedding their senior officers; these are Russian commanders."
Galeotti said this signaled that Russia wanted a more
permanent influence over Ukrainian separatists. "It's a control issue, to
make sure maverick commanders don't prosper," he told us. "Somewhere
in Moscow they have made the decision this will be a long-term frozen
conflict."
The Russian military has confirmed that a small military contingent has been deployed
inside Ukraine, at the request of the Kiev government and with the mission to
help the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe implement the
Minsk agreement on the ground. There is a Joint Center for Control and
Coordinationset up to oversee the implementation of the Minsk agreement. The Russian
general that has been attached to the center as part of the agreement is
Lieutenant General Alexander Ivanovich Lentsov, the deputy commander of Russian
ground forces, who has also been accused of having a role in commanding Russian
troops aiding the separatists.
“They are of course only accusations that General
Lentsov is responsible for orchestrating and commanding some of the Russian
troops on the ground in Ukraine, but it does seem plausible that he and his
staff maintain contact with the other commanders in eastern Ukraine,” said
Hannah Thoburn, Eurasia analyst at the Foreign Policy Initiative. “How the
chain of command works in this situation is unclear.”
The 30-page dossier provided to Congress and the U.S.
government also represents an effort from the Ukrainian security services to
prove to their allies that they are making progress in rooting out Russian
saboteurs from Ukraine. It includes tallies and briefings on military
intelligence suspects arrested by Ukraine.
The dossier reports that Ukrainian intelligence
services believe there are just under 9,000 Russian regular army soldiers
currently deployed inside Ukraine, organized into 15 battalion tactical groups.
That estimate could not be independently confirmed. The Russian Embassy in
Washington did not respond to a request for comment.
The Ukrainians also contend that Russia continues to
pour heavy weaponry into Ukraine, an accusation often echoed by senior U.S.
officials. Those weapons include tanks, armored personnel carriers, and
anti-aircraft missile systems similar to the one that accidentally shot down
Malaysian Airlines flight MH-17 over Donetsk last year.
On Capitol Hill, there’s bipartisan support for giving
the Ukrainian military defensive weapons, given the Russian actions, but the
Obama administration has made clear they have no intention of going beyond the
limited non-lethal assistance that is currently being provided.
“There are still incursions on the borders, they are
still interfering in the sovereignty of Ukraine,” said Senator Ben Cardin, the
top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee. “I still believe we should be
providing Ukraine weapons that allow them to defend their borders better than
they are.”
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain
traveled to Ukraine last month and met with Ukrainian political, military and
intelligence leaders. He said the Ukrainians are outmatched by a
Russian-supported force that has better technology and better intelligence.
“They’ve got 20th century weapons against 21st century weapons,” McCain said. “They
are begging for us to help them defend themselves. They’ve proven they will
fight, but we’ve got to give them something to fight with.”
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