The main players in Greece’s increasingly bitter fight with its European
creditors are Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor Angela
Merkel, who has consistently demanded that Athens implement hard-hitting
austerity measures if it wants a bailout. But in the background, hoping to
exploit a geopolitical opening, waits Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Russian leader — who spoke with Tsipras by phone Monday — has hinted that he would welcome Athens into his warm embrace if it were to exit
the eurozone and perhaps the EU itself. He has talked of building a new Russian
natural gas pipeline through Greece that would help Athens service its debt by
generating revenue for the Greek government and creating jobs. Moscow and
Athens have also considered that Russian firms would participate in the privatization of some Greek
industry.
Tsipras has at least tried to reciprocate Putin’s overtures, lashing out
at Western sanctions against Russia during an April visit to Moscow in what
appeared to be an effort to curry favor with the Russian leader.
To be sure, it’s unclear how far Putin’s dalliance with Tsipras will
actually go. Greek leaders say they want to remain within Europe, and even as
Putin has flirted with the leaders of the Syriza coalition, Russian officials
have consistently said they weren’t considering offering Athens any direct
financial assistance. Indeed, when Tsipras travelled to Moscow in April, he left empty-handed and didn’t secure his top objective for his trip: the easing of
agricultural sanctions on Greek farmers.
Russia’s promised construction jobs are also far from guaranteed. On Monday, Putin and Tsipras “discussed several matters concerning further
development of bilateral cooperation,” likely a reference to the proposed
Turkish Stream gas pipeline that would deliver gas to Europe while
circumventing Ukraine. The construction of that pipeline, which would pass
through Greece, has yet to begin, however, and many analysts are skeptical that
it will ever be built.
In the context of Putin’s contest for influence with European powers and
the United States, that uncertainty doesn’t particularly matter. For now, the
mere appearance of Russian influence in a major European crisis is enough to
rattle continental leaders, who have watched with
concern as Tsipras
traveled to Moscow in search of investment opportunities.
That dynamic speaks to the unpredictable geopolitical consequences of
the Greek crisis — which Tsipras has clearly tried to exploit in order to
strengthen his negotiating position. The call with Putin on Monday, the Kremlin
statement noted, came “on Greece’s initiative.” The fear that a Greek exit
could lead the country to fall into Moscow’s orbit in this way functions as a
negotiating ploy for Tsipras.
European leaders are well-aware that Greece represents an attractive
target for Putin because of its membership in both NATO and the EU. Influence
within the military alliance and the sanctions decision-making bodies of the EU
would be a great prize for the Russian leader. On that front, Greece has
delivered little for Putin, doing nothing to prevent the extension of EU sanctions on Russia.
Indeed, it remains unclear on what basis Greece and Russia would build a
strengthened relationship. Greece could certainly provide Russia with an
attractive Mediterranean port for its warships. But would a left-leaning
government steeped in the tradition of Marxist resistance be able to get in bed
with an autocrat to further his military ambitions? Could the cash-strapped
Russian treasury provide Greece with the necessary funds to revitalize its
economy? With the Russian economy tanking, how eager is the Kremlin to provide
a bailout for Athens? So far, Russian officials have said that such a proposal
is not on the table.
Despite the lack of concrete proposals, the gambit remains useful for
Putin, sowing distrust among the ranks of an EU coalition divided over how to
resolve the Greek crisis — and confront Putin in Ukraine.
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