The war in Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin’s bid to overturn the post-Cold
War international settlement in Europe, have forced many Western governments to
reappraise their approach to Russia. Until 2003, it was widely believed that a
modernizing Russia might be accommodated into the international system as a
constructive and benign actor. Variations on this view have given way to the
realization that Russia, on its present course, cannot be a partner or ally,
and that differences outweigh any common interests.
Russia faces mounting internal difficulties, including a weakening
economy and a political culture that stifles enterprise and society. The
combination of these forces imperils both security in Europe and stability in
Russia. The Russian challenge, which this report sets out to examine, is
therefore two fold: it is a challenge to the West, in terms of managing the
increasing threats Russia poses to international order; and to Russia itself. President
Putin’s options are uncomfortably narrow.
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