President Vladimir Putin of Russia is not veering from
the mythology he created to explain away the crisis over Ukraine. It is one
that wholly blames the West for provoking a new Cold War and insists that
international sanctions have not grievously wounded his country’s flagging
economy.
He told the story again on Friday at a business forum
whose purpose was to give weight to that fantasy. It drew at least 24 chief
executives of Western companies, some of whom attended even though their
governments had urged them not to.
Despite Mr. Putin’s skill at using foreign executives
as props, he is looking more desperate than confident that he will win the
confrontation with the West.
It will be a big setback for Mr. Putin if, as
expected, European Union foreign ministers formally extend sanctions on Russia
by six months when they meet this week in Luxembourg. Ever since Russia’s 2014
annexation of Crimea forced NATO and the European Union to react, he has worked
to split the trans-Atlantic alliance, and some believe its collapse is his real
goal.
The Europeans are indeed divided over the extent to
which Russia, with its huge oil and gas resources, should be isolated, but Mr.
Putin’s aggression so far has ensured their unity when it counts. In addition
to extending existing sanctions, the allies have prepared a new round of
sanctions that could be imposed if Russian-backed separatists seized more
territory in Ukraine.
In the meantime, Belgium and France last week began to
seize Russian assets in their countries, to enforce a 2014 international
arbitration court order for Moscow to pay shareholders of the Yukos oil company
$50 billion in compensation after Russian officials forced it into bankruptcy.
Although Mr. Putin insisted on Friday that Russia had
found the “inner strength” to weather sanctions and a drop in oil prices,
investment has slowed, capital has fled the country and the economy has been
sliding into recession. Even the business forum was not all that it seemed: The
heads of many Western companies stayed away for a second year.
One of the most alarming aspects of the crisis has
been Mr. Putin’s willingness to brandish nuclear weapons. His announcement on
Tuesday that about 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles would be added to
the Russian arsenal was not a surprise. The United States and Russia are both
spending billions of dollars to modernize their weapons. But the move further
alarms NATO allies near Russia’s borders and the loose talk could undermine
years of efforts intended to reduce nuclear tensions and the risk of war.
The United States and Europe have largely been
measured in their response to the crisis. They need to stay measured and
focused on diplomacy, always making it clear that the confrontation could end
if Mr. Putin withdrew his troops and weapons from Ukraine and instructed
Russian-backed separatists to observe the Minsk cease-fire agreement that both
sides have routinely violated.
Given Mr. Putin’s aggressive behavior, including
pouring troops and weapons into Kaliningrad, a Russian city located between
NATO members Lithuania and Poland, the allies have begun taking their own
military steps. In recent months, NATO approved a rapid-reaction force in case
an ally needs to be defended. It also pre-positioned some weapons in front-line
countries, is rotating troops there and is conducting many more exercises.
There are also plans to store battle tanks and other heavy weapons in several
Baltic and Eastern European countries.
If he is not careful, Mr. Putin may end up facing
exactly what he has railed against — a NATO more firmly parked on Russia’s
borders — not because the alliance wanted to go in that direction, but because
Russian behavior left it little choice. That is neither in Russia’s interest,
nor the West’s.
No comments:
Post a Comment