Modi’s Moscow Visit: Navigating Complex Geopolitical Tensions

Narendra Damodardas Modi, Prime Minister of India, is currently in Moscow on a two-day working visit. Given Russia's ongoing military aggression against Ukraine, it is crucial for Ukrainians to understand the purpose behind Modi’s trip. Respected Ukrainian political analyst Roman Bezsmertny has identified at least four key issues that Modi will likely address in his negotiations with President Putin.

1. Military Cooperation

India and Russia have a longstanding history of military cooperation dating back to the Soviet era. Today, Russia supplies approximately 60 percent of India’s weapons, along with methodological and training programs. However, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has disrupted this cooperation. The Ukrainian armed forces' success in destroying Russian military equipment has led to interruptions in military supplies from Russia to India. Modi’s challenge is to revitalize this crucial aspect of their bilateral relationship.

2. Trade Balance

Currently, the trade turnover between India and Russia stands at $64 billion. Since the onset of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, Russia has been supplying excess crude oil to India, meeting 40 percent of India’s oil needs. This shift has skewed the trade balance in favor of Russia by $56 billion. Modi's objective will be to increase the import of Indian goods to Russia, rebalancing trade relations.

3. Russian-Chinese Cooperation

China, India’s main competitor in the Indo-Pacific region, has been intensifying its cooperation with Russia. This growing partnership between Moscow and Beijing is a significant concern for New Delhi, given the existing tensions between India and China. Modi will likely address this issue, seeking to understand and potentially counteract the implications of this alliance.

4. Balancing Geopolitical Alignments

India, the world’s largest democracy, finds itself in an uneasy alliance with Russia, which actively collaborates with China, Iran, and North Korea. This association appears contradictory to India’s democratic ideals. Modi faces the delicate task of gradually steering India’s geopolitical focus away from Russia and towards democratic countries, thereby reinforcing India’s stance in the global democratic order and pushing China out of the G-20 geopolitical agenda.

As Modi navigates these complex issues, his visit to Moscow will be closely watched by international observers, particularly in Ukraine and other democratic nations, keen to understand the future direction of India’s foreign policy.

Glory to Ukraine!