PRAGUE -- The
U.S. State Department's chief sanctions-policy coordinator is confident the
European Union will maintain its travel and economic restrictions against
Russia until Moscow fulfills the terms of a peace agreement to end the conflict
in eastern Ukraine.
Speaking to
RFE/RL in the Czech capital after a weeklong tour of four Central European
states to shore up support for the sanctions regime, Daniel Fried on June 16
called costs to the West of sanctions "the price" of combating
"Russian aggression."
The United
States and European Union imposed sanctions on Russia for its seizure of Crimea
in March 2014 and its backing of armed separatism in eastern Ukraine, leaving
President Vladimir Putin internationally isolated.
Western
officials vow the measures will be lifted only after the fulfillment of the
2015 Minsk accords, which set out steps to bring a lasting peace to eastern
Ukraine, where more than 9,300 people have died in fighting since April 2014.
"Sanctions
can be costly, but happily European countries have suffered much less than
Russian propaganda makes it out to be," Fried said. "Some have been
hit harder than others, the Baltic states in particular, [and] Finland. So we
need to stick together. American companies have also been hit. But this is the
price we all need to pay if we're to successfully resist Russian
aggression."
The
sanctions have hit Russia's economy most dramatically by closing long-term EU
lending to Russian companies and discouraging foreign investment.
Some of
Putin's inner circle have also been targeted with asset freezes and travel
bans.
However,
European countries have been hit by countermeasures ordered by the Kremlin,
including a Russian import ban on meat, vegetable, and dairy products from the
EU.
That has led
to growing calls in some quarters of Europe to lift the sanctions.
'Worse Without Sanctions'
At the St.
Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 16, former French President
Nicolas Sarkozy called for the European restrictions to be lifted, saying,
"We have enough problems without it, and we cannot afford to suffer."
In his
RFE/RL interview, Fried countered by saying that, at the same forum, European
Commission President Jean Claude Juncker spoke firmly in favor of sanctions
remaining until the terms of the Minsk accords are met.
"This
was a good statement," Fried said.
Fried
rejected any suggestion that a recent uptick in violence in eastern Ukraine
casts doubt on whether the sanctions are working.
"If it
weren't for sanctions, things would be much worse. And anybody who thinks that
it couldn't be worse in Ukraine simply lacks imagination," Fried warned.
"Sanctions did two things: They prevented the Russians from going much
further, and I think, without the sanctions, the Russians would have gone much
further."
Fried said
in a reference to a key coastal stretch of Ukraine that Russia-backed separatists
"might have attacked Mariupol, they might have driven a so-called land
bridge to Crimea."
"The
second thing sanctions achieved was to provide the conditions for getting a
framework, the Minsk accords, to end the conflict. No sanctions, no Minsk accords,"
Fried added.
Working Diplomatic Channels
Asked
whether sanctions may have played into the hands of Putin, allowing him to
blame the West for his country's economic woes, Fried said there was virtually
no other course of action available.
"How
would the Russians have responded if the West had been weak? What conclusions
would the Russians have drawn had we failed to resist their aggression?"
Fried said. "Would their behavior have been better? Really? I think that a
strong response has prevented things from being worse and given us the road to
get out of the situation."
As for
whether Putin's popularity has been boosted by the crisis with the West, Fried
was skeptical.
"As for
popularity, well, I've always had a healthy skepticism of public opinion polls
conducted in countries where it is not perhaps safe to say you don't support
the leader," he said.
Polls of
Russians, who are used to seeing media toe the Kremlin line since authorities
began silencing independent news outlets soon after Putin was appointed to
succeed Boris Yeltsin at the end of 1999, consistently show strong support for
the former KGB officer.
Fried also
rejected suggestions that average Russians were suffering more as a result of
the sanctions than some of Putin's cronies blacklisted by the EU and
Washington.
"As for
hurting the Russian people, the West, the EU and the U.S., never considered
sanctioning food exports to Russia. We would never do that," Fried said.
"It is the Russian government itself that has deprived the Russian people
of access to good quality food. You'll have to ask them why they did
this."
The EU trade
and financing sanctions must be renewed every six months, with the next vote
coming at an EU heads-of-state summit in Brussels on June 28 and 29.
Greece,
along with Hungary, Italy, Cyprus, and Slovakia, have been among the most vocal
critics within the EU of the sanctions.Russia is the EU's third-largest trading
partner.
Diplomats in
Brussels have expressed confidence that the sanctions will be extended next
month. But analysts have wondered aloud whether they will be prolonged again
six months later.
Moscow is
now working its diplomatic channels to erode EU unity to ultimately end or dilute the sanctions
regime.
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