A new generation of Russian politicians needs Europe’s unified support.
Europe faces important milestones in the next few weeks. Will the European
Union continue sanctions against Russia? Will
Britain withdraw from the union? Both decisions have the potential to weaken
the European project, and could alter, whether directly or indirectly, the
Continent’s relations with Russia.
At this crucial juncture, Europe should seek to more deeply understand
Russia’s political climate, and look to its untapped potential: a new
generation of political leaders that could shift the country’s outlook toward
Europe in the years to come.
Unlike Europe, the Kremlin does not work within moral boundaries. It
consistently targets Western political and business elites with divide-and-rule
tactics both crude and sophisticated. The regime supports, and even finances,
fringe political parties. It openly spreads propaganda with the assistance of
specially created media outlets. These methods have proved to be effective. And
the West is, unfortunately, not immune to them.
Many commentators have described the current tension in EU-Russia relations
as a new Cold War. But what distinguishes the
current Russian government from the erstwhile Soviet leaders familiar to the
West is its rejection of ideological constraints and the complete elimination
of institutions.
There is not a single issue or position the Kremlin would not abandon for
the sake of holding on to power. Nuclear war is a completely unexceptionable
argument to the Kremlin today. In his desire to preserve his power — a
reflection of his total lack of understanding of what normal government means —
President Vladimir Putin rejects even the illusion of institutionalization
adopted by Soviet leaders.
None of the structures of the Soviet era exist any more. Instead, a gigantic
country with a huge arsenal of weapons is hostage to Putin, a man whose
experience of government — as became clear with the leaked Panama Papers — was gleaned from
criminal gangsters. Bribery, blackmail, deceit and violence are the vices of
any badly run government, but for the Kremlin they are a framework it also
energetically exports and promotes abroad.
EU leaders and European public opinion should no longer be deceived into
thinking they are dealing with a normal state. European Commission President
Jean-Claude Juncker, ahead of his meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg later
this month, said: “We must make efforts
towards a practical relationship with Russia. It is not sexy, but that must be
the case, we can’t go on like this.”
I agree — we cannot forever be waiting for change to come. But the devil
you know is not always better than the one you don’t. The Kremlin will do
everything in its power to support our dangerous misconceptions. Dangerous
because when European politicians meet Putin they are shaking the hand of a
criminal.
Putin is loyal and generous to his friends, but has no sense of any
responsibility to his electorate or his country. He is proud of his unpredictability.
Putin can give no guarantees, because there are no institutions. He is ruled by
his whims and the constant fear of losing power.
The only thing that constrains Putin is the fear of an immediate strong-arm
response that could destabilize the regime. It was the West’s unexpectedly
concerted and tough actions that limited the Kremlin’s aggression in Ukraine.
Europe’s ability to act in concert is now Putin’s chief geopolitical target,
because without it Europe is extremely vulnerable, and not just militarily.
Manufactured tension over energy supply, hysteria surrounding the issue of
migration, political extremism, blackmail, bribery of political and business
elites — these are all part of the Kremlin’s policy toward Europe. And these
strategies will become more effective with a disunited Continent. This is
precisely why symbols of division, like a British exit from the Union or moves
away from a single economic policy, play into the hands of the Kremlin.
Should we fear, as some do, that Russia after Putin will become even more
unpredictable? I don’t think so. But better relations will require concerted
efforts from both Russia and the West. If Russia is currently functioning in a
relatively normal way, this is in spite, not because, of the Kremlin. The
absence of political competition and an undiversified economy in Russia,
guarantees increasing instability.
The current regime will not last forever. The regime is fairly consistent
in its destruction of the fledgling efforts at self-organization and
self-government. But the government’s astounding inefficiency limits its
effectiveness.
Optimists predict its implosion within a couple of years; my view is that
change will take closer to a decade. But how much destruction will Putin and
his cronies wreak on the way out? For swift, positive change, we need to
support political and civil society leaders with shared European values,
political experience, and a commitment to concerted action.
Unless the EU wholeheartedly supports this new generation of Russian
politicians and their alternative vision for Russia’s future, it will lose time
in creating crucial lines of communication. And this delay will no doubt
diminish these reformers’ chances for success.
Today, despite enormous pressure from the authorities, thousands of
activists participate in Russian election campaigns to support the democratic
opposition. Included are 24 young political leaders supported by Open Russia. This educated, engaged and
passionately pro-European generation is already looking ahead to the challenges
the country faces post-Putin. Europe must develop a close working relationship
with them to ensure it remains relevant to Russia’s future.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky is the founder of the Open Russia movement, which
advocates democracy and human rights in Russia, and is the former head of
Russian oil company Yukos. He was imprisoned in Russia from 2003-2013 and
declared a prisoner of conscience by Amnesty International. Read the original Russian version of his article here.
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