Alexander J.
Motyl
If you’re wondering why the Minsk peace process isn’t
leading to peace, look no further than a recent interview with Vladislav Inozemtsev, a
highly respected Russian economist and director of the Center for the Study of
Postindustrial Society in Moscow. The bottom line—surprise, surprise!—is this:
Vladimir Putin doesn’t want peace. He wants to make Ukraine into a
permanent backwater state dependent on the Kremlin.
How? By forcing
Kiev to reintegrate the now occupied, politically poisoned, and economically
ravaged Donbas into Ukraine, knowing full well that this region, now forever
crippled by Putin’s proxies, will condemn Ukraine to being a permanently
bankrupt puppet of the mafia state next door. This would be suicide.
Tragically, although many Ukrainian policymakers understand it makes no sense
for Ukraine to infect itself with this cancer, the power of Ukrainian patriotic
rhetoric—“The Donbas is eternal Ukrainian land!”—may wind up saddling the
country with a burden so heavy that it will crush its sovereignty and its
democracy, move it decisively away from Europe and the world, and succeed in
achieving what Viktor Yanukovych failed to do: transform Ukraine into a backward
hinterland of a backward imperialist petro-state.
Is Moscow
planning to annex the separatist #Donbas enclave? Here’s Inozemtsev:
It’s not. …
Perhaps the Kremlin considered this option at the start of the shocks in
April-May 2014, but now, after the war, when we have become witness to enormous
destruction, a dysfunctional system, and the region’s transformation into an
economic wasteland, obviously Russia will not annex it. … Much there has been
destroyed, much has been stolen, removed to Russia and resold. I believe this
region represents no special economic advantage. More than that, consider what
it used to have: the coal and metallurgical industries. Metallurgy remains in
Mariupil, which is, thank God, under Ukrainian control, while the coal industry
is very unprofitable. Ukraine’s budget subsidized the Donbas for many years. …
Russia knows this industry is unprofitable and has no intention of supporting
the east of Ukraine….
So Moscow wants
the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics to rejoin Ukraine?
All of Russia’s
policies after the collapse of the Soviet Union—and not just Putin’s—have aimed
at creating a mess somewhere and leaving it in that condition. They tried to
use Transdnistria to undermine Moldovan statehood, but Transdnistria turned out
to have no benefit for Russia, while annexing it was undesirable as it would
have facilitated Chisinau’s road to Europe. The same happened in Georgia. Now
it’s Ukraine’s turn. Moscow doesn’t need the Donbas or a strong Ukraine. The
Kremlin wants to saddle Kyiv with permanent problems. So that Ukraine won’t be
able to join the EU and NATO due to its territorial conflict. So that the
so-called DNR and LNR will conduct Moscow’s line in Ukraine’s parliament.
That’s the hook on which Ukraine should hang.
Who should pay
for the restoration of the Donbas? The obvious answer is the aggressor, Russia.
In a just world, Ukraine would add a demand to the Minsk negotiations for some
$20 billion in war reparations from Russia for the Donbas. In reality, however,
only losers pay war reparations.
For the
foreseeable future, it is unrealistic to expect that Ukraine will be able to
finance the restoration of the Donbas. Nor can the already overindebted country
borrow money to do the job. It would have to leave much of the Donbas’ urban
territories as industrial wastelands, which would make it arduous to
reintegrate the population.
I fully agree
with Aslund’s policy recommendation, but can’t imagine that it’ll happen
anytime soon:
The only
sensible solution is for the European Union and the United States to put up
substantial grant assistance to Ukraine for the restoration and reintegration
of the Donbas. For the sake of stabilizing a former war-ravaged area in Europe,
$20 billion is no great amount. Just compare it with the $300 billion the
European Union has spent on the Greek financial crisis.
If Russia and
the West won’t pay for Russia’s criminal devastation of the DNR-LNR-controlled
territories, then Ukraine will get stuck with the bill. And that’ll kill any
hope that Ukraine will become a viable and modern democratic state.
Kyiv must find
the courage to refuse the suicide option, declare the Donbas enclave
Russian-occupied territory, and wash its hands of the mess.
Here’s another
reason to get rid of that cancer. I recently received the following email from
one “Andrei Poletaev.” The subject heading was: Disgusting Ukrainian Nazi.
Here’s what he said:
You are a
disgusting miserable Ukrainian right wing propagandist and extremist. You
have no idea what you are talking about, go to Donetsk or Lugansk and talk to
people and you will see how much they despise your Ukrainian Bandera murderous
regime. I have a lot of friends from Novorossia and i don’t [sic] a single
person who supports fascist Kiev junta. Remember my words, sooner or later,
Donetsk, Luganks [sic] and the entire Novorossia will be free. And you,
dirty Bandera Nazi apologist, will burn in hell.
I don’t doubt
that “Andrei Poletaev’s” friends are exactly as he describes them. But which
should Ukrainians prefer? Burning in hell or breathing the same air he and his
friends in the DNR-LNR breathe?
No comments:
Post a Comment