By
On November 10, a Russian television broadcast
of a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and some of his senior military
officers revealed a “secret” plan for a long-range, nuclear-armed torpedo
called Status-6. The broadcast on state-run Channel One showed a diagram of the
torpedo, filmed over the shoulder of a Russian officer.
According
to BBC, the
diagram described the purpose of the Status-6 as to “destroy important economic
installations of the enemy in coastal areas and cause guaranteed devastating
damage to the country’s territory by creating wide areas of radioactive
contamination, rendering them unusable for military, economic or other activity
for a long time.”
The Status-6 revelation raises some interesting
questions.
Not an accidental leak
To begin with, this was no accidental leak.
Televised events involving the Russian president are carefully scripted by the
Kremlin. Even if a Russian cameraman was daring enough to film the diagram
surreptitiously, his producer would have made a phone call to check with higher
authority before broadcasting a secret weapon to the world.
The picture was aired because the Kremlin wanted
it aired and wanted the world to believe that Russia has plans for a large
nuclear torpedo. That fits with Moscow’s pattern of nuclear saber-rattling over
the past two years.
Along with a generally more belligerent stance toward
the West, flights by Bear bombers near NATO airspace and submarine incursions in Swedish and Finnish waters, Putin and
other Russian officials take every possible occasion to remind the world of
something the world already knows well: Russia has an awful lot of nuclear
weapons.
Is it real?
Is the Status-6 intended to be real? As Jeffrey Lewis has pointed out, it would appear to be a particularly nasty
weapon that would generate massive amounts of radioactivity if detonated in
shallow waters. It also would appear to have some drawbacks.
First of all, the diagram indicated that the
torpedo, which would be launched from a submarine mothership, will have a range
of 10,000 kilometers (more than 6,000 miles). The long range would allow the
torpedo to be fired from waters close to Russia, reducing the exposure of the
Russian mothership to U.S. and NATO anti-submarine capabilities.
At its alleged speed of 100 knots (about 115
miles per hour), if launched from north of Russia’s Kola Peninsula, the torpedo
would take some 40 hours to reach targets on the U.S. East Coast. That’s a long
time; do Russian military planners really want a system that takes nearly two
days to strike its objectives?
Second, at a speed of 100 knots, the Status-6
would be much faster than conventional torpedoes. When it comes to underwater
travel, more speed usually means more noise, increasing the risk of detection.
This would not appear to be a particularly
stealthy system. NATO navies might not have an ability to stop it, but they
might well know where it was and where it was headed.
Third, the Russians as a rule exercise caution
about how they manage and control nuclear arms. Would Russian navy commanders
be comfortable with an unmanned nuclear
weapon roaming the ocean on its own for up to two days traveling to its
target—or perhaps even longer if it traveled to near the target and simply
lurked?
This is not to say that the Status-6 is not a
real weapon design. The Russians, and the Soviets before them, have built some
bizarre and nasty devices. But it’s not obvious that the Status-6 would be the
weapon of choice for many operations—that is, unless the Russian leadership was
prepared to have its cities nuked in response.
For all the oddities of the Status-6 torpedo,
there would appear to be one bit of good news. Military strategists since the
dawn of the nuclear ballistic missile age have obsessed over the possibility of
surprise attack. Given its long travel time to target, possibly noisily
announcing its course along the way, the Status-6 would not appear to make a
good first-strike weapon.
Paranoid android
At about the time that it showed the Status-6
diagram, the broadcast aired Putin expressing concern about U.S. missile
defenses and saying: “We’ll work on our missile defense systems, but primarily,
as we’ve said repeatedly, I repeat, we’ll work on development of strike weapons
capable of overcoming any anti-missile defense systems.”
The Status-6, operating underwater, presumably
would not be troubled by an American missile interceptor. But does the Russian
military really believe it needs such a system to overcome U.S. missile
defenses? It would hardly seem so.
By 2018, the United States will have 44 missile
interceptors with a velocity capable of engaging a strategic ballistic missile
warhead. At that time, Russia will have some 1,500 deployed warheads on its
intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
The Russian military understands this. The
Russian public may not. The Status-6 revelation thus may have been aimed at
domestic viewers, to assure them that, despite all of the anxiety that Moscow
voices about U.S. missile defenses, the Russian military will still be able to
strike back.
Two views of nuclear weapons
This episode illustrates the very different
attitudes of the American and Russian presidents toward nuclear arms. While
noting that, as long as nuclear weapons exist, the United States will maintain
a reliable nuclear deterrent, Obama stresses the need to reduce nuclear risks
and seeks to reduce the role and number of nuclear weapons in U.S. security
policy.
Putin, on the other hand, has refused to engage
in any nuclear arms reduction negotiations since the New START
Treaty. He
instead talks rather loosely about nuclear weapons—he said he was prepared to go on a nuclear alert when Russia illegally seized Crimea in
2014—and has bizarre new weapon designs revealed during his televised meetings.
That’s a striking and unsettling contrast.
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