One of the first questions that came to mind
when Governor Saakashvili was appointed, was how long he would stay?
When introduced to the public on the day of his
appointment by President Poroshenko, the president stated he expected to see
progress in Odessa within a year and that matters would be assessed then – a
statement that immediately suggested that, given the size of the task and the
limited tools a Governor has, Mr Saakashvili’s tenure was not necessarily going
to be that long.
Indeed, as has been opined here several times,
the appointment of Governor Saakashvili was perhaps much more to do with an
attempt to reinvigorate public opinion behind the president, and by extension
the president’s party, prior to the local elections. The issue being
Odessa is strategically important for Ukraine and thus for the presidential
party. As City Hall looks to be far beyond presidential party control
either by majority or coalition, the Oblast mattered.
Thus it remains to be seen just how well the
Saakashvili “pull factor” works for the presidential party (Solidarity) on 25th
October, and if that “pull factor” has turned around – or at least put a bottom
under -the general disappointment in the government’s performance.
Whether the Saakashvili “pull factor” combined
with his highly public “whack-a-crook”/”knock down a wall” PR will do the trick
will be seen on 25th October.
The anticipated 10th October opening of the
one-stop-shop for business may well boost a few votes too – although the voting
constituency of Odessa are not naive and are cynical enough to see through a
Saakashvili deal with Messrs Kauffman and Granovsky for space in the plush and
very modern Platinum Bank HQ next to the Oblast Administration for the
one-stop-shop, in exchange for not publicly lynching them along side Denys
Antoniuk in the Odessa airport nefarious affairs.
(Messrs Kauffman and Granovsky actually own
Odessa Airport (via a very dubious privatisation) through the usual murky corporate
structures that have (naturally) been employed to take ownership of the
airport. Ukrainian company OOO Odessa Airport Development (registered in Kyiv)
is owned by UK company Odessa Airport Development Limited, whose shares are
owned by Valafichita Holdings (Cyprus) and Letnon Ltd BVI. Behind those sit
Messrs Kauffman and Granovsky.)
If as suspected, Governor Saakashvili was first
and foremost placed in Odessa to “pull” votes to the presidential party that
may otherwise (and perhaps still will) be run close by the Opposition Block on
an Oblast scale (not the City which has more diverse competition), then the
question about how long Governor Saakashvili remains governor post 25th October
is open to question.
If the political plan is the long anticipated
(since summer 2014) early Rada elections in Easter 2016, then that would just
about fit with President Poroshenko’s remarks when unveiling the Governor
Saakashvili and assessment after one year (either sacked or moved to high
office in Kyiv implied).
If the much tauted government reshuffle this
Autumn sees Arseny Yatseniuk sent to the NBU or EU Ambassador following his
party’s assimilation into Solidarity, then perhaps Kyiv beckons earlier and the
ability to change laws rather than suffer laws for Mr Saakashvili will present
itself.
In short, Governor Saakashvili may remain Odessa
Governor for another 6 weeks, or another 9 months, political timetables and
election results depending – but he is clearly itching for a position of real
power from which to take on people like Ihor Kolomoisky.
Whatever the case there will be a “post-Misha”
Odessa and the structures and their sustainability currently being created will
matter.
Thus we once again come to the fairly recently
appointed Saakashvili Number 2 in the Governor’s Administration, Vladimir Zhmak
– of whom thus far nothing good has been written at this blog.
“Was it a poisonous seed planted by first
deputy chairman of the Odessa Regional State Administration Vladimir Zhmak, the
source of much recent discord and disinformation from within and amongst the
Governor’s administration? (In fact Mr Zhmak is perhaps deserving of his own
entry at some point.)”
There are two current very corrosive issues
regarding Mr Zhmak that are causing considerable friction within the Solidarity
political ranks in Odessa – as well as within the “western educated” teams
being built within the Governor’s administration and the Oblast Rada itself.
Not only does Mr Zhmak appear to be the source
of a lot of disinformation and discontent amongst the ranks, (some may call it
“active measures”), regular readers should perhaps be unsurprised if Mr Zhmak
appears as the Number 1 name upon the Solidarity Party list for Odessa – de
facto (and perhaps de jure in due course) making him the leader of Solidarity
in Odessa, despite his rapidly increasing unpopularity within the Solidarity
rank and file.
(Wiser head’s such as Sasha Borovik have refused
point blank to be put on the party list – thus giving them an unwritten “walk
away” clause as and when Mr Saakashvili heads to Kyiv and they either don’t
want to go with him, or work under any new Governor/Prefect.)
Full disclosure – Your author was asked his
opinion by those who sit around the Governor’s top table, and your author
opined that regardless of the shadow influence some will have far beyond any
official positions, Mr Zhmak should not be Number 1. A local with some
“moral authority”, namely a scientist or cultural figure would be a much wiser
thing to do. Undoubtedly other opinions will be very similar, and
undoubtedly other opinions will be sought!
Mr Zhmak however, would become Mr Saakashvili’s
“chosen” elected man in Odessa as Number 1 on the local election list. Mr
Zhmak naturally knows how to cut a grubby deal behind the curtain – he was
until only a few months ago, a high flier within the Russian State oil company
Rosneft before Governor Saakashvili appointed him Oblast Number 2.
Quite clearly the genuinely local Solidarity
political deputies are not at all happy with that outcome and internal disquiet
is gathering momentum.
To make matters even worse, Mr Zhmak has just
appointed Konstantin Shpilevoy to head the Administration anti-corruption body.
Konstantin Shpilevoy stood as an Opposition
Block candidate in the Rada elections last October. During the Yanukovych
regime he worked as a “fixer”. By “fixer” read official problem solver
via corrupt methods for large sums of cash. Just as one example of many,
the disastrous former-Mayor Kostosev paid him a large sum to stop an
investigation into a very corrupt land deal involving some beach front land.
In another example, Mr Shpilevoy “leaked” information about somebody to a
local media outlet (Dumskaya) which was duly published, to then approach the
person about who he instigated the “leak” for money to solve his problems.
Naturally this appointment does not sit well
within the Solidarity rank and file of Odessa – for all know Konstantin
Shpilevoy to be a corrupt swindler of the Yanukovych regime, and last year as
an Opposition Block candidate (who fortunately lost). In short he is
somebody should in no way be associated with the current Oblast
administrations, and least of all within the anti-corruption body.
Mr Zhmak, and now undoubtedly assisted by Mr
Shpilevoy’s appointment some within the anti-corruption body will leave on
principle (anticipate people like Alexie Chorny etc), are starting to corrode
the Solidarity Party in Odessa and undo the institutions that have been newly
and fairly transparently created – so much so that some of the conspiratorial
within the ranks will start to wonder whether the (recently) ex-Rosneft man is
not simply a Kremlin agent used to split the local party from the centre.
It all seems to be quietly falling apart behind
the scenes within the Solidarity Party in Odessa at a local governance level –
immediately prior to the local elections. If the facade of unity can last
until election
day, it seems highly unlikely to last for very
long after it.
The problem for the young and reform minded
Oblast deputies is that there will be nowhere to go within the Oblast Rada
where they can remain “unsullied”. The same can be said for those genuine
reformers within the current Governor’s administration who will be equally
disaffected by reason appointments and events.
The problem is not going to Governor Saakashvili
leaving (for nobody expects him to stay), the problem is clearly going to be
the people he will leave behind – both good and bad, and where they fit into a
structure that is meant to be sustainable.
It may appear to some (who are cynical) that
structures and placements are being created to be controlled from Kyiv by an
ex-Governor that has moved up the ladder. Nobody has ever accused Mr
Saakashvili of being a democracy advocate, he has always been labeled a
reformer/moderniser, perhaps a power vertical starts in Odessa?
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