As Russia draws down its military operation in Syria, many eyes are
turning back to eastern Ukraine, where an unsteady peace has hobbled along for
months.
Since last November, Turkey—not Ukraine—has been the main antagonist in
Russia's national news cycle, but antipathy between Russians and
Ukrainians remains sky-high. What does this mean for the future? In a
recent editorial for the newspaper Vedomosti,
columnist Andrei Sinitsyn argues that Russians' attitudes appear to be relatively
pliable, influenced heavily by televised propaganda. Ukrainians' animosity
for Russia, however, is another thing altogether.
A new joint research project carried out by the Levada Center in Moscow
and the Kiev International Institute of Sociology has revealed serious acrimony
between Russians and Ukrainians.
Surveys conducted in January and February show that just 36 percent of
people in Ukraine express a positive attitude about Russia. This figure was
roughly the same (34 percent) in September last year. In Russia, positive
attitudes about Ukraine are even rarer: just 27 percent of those polled say
they like Ukraine (down from 33 percent last September). Meanwhile, 47 percent
of Ukrainians say they have a negative attitude about Russia (down from 53
percent in September), and 59 percent of Russians say they don't like Ukraine
(up from 56 percent last year). The deterioration of Russians' relationship
with Ukraine in recent months is likely tied to the fact that Russian state
propaganda blames Kiev for the compliance failures of the Minsk Accords.
Russians' attitudes about Ukraine depend most of all on propaganda,
insofar as the country relies overwhelmingly on television for its news. For
Ukrainians, the seizure of part of their territory and the protracted armed
conflict in the east are plainly obvious. And for most Ukrainians it's just as
clear that Russia is to blame. (Sixty-three percent of Ukrainians say the country
is at war with Russia, while 65 percent of Russians say no such war is taking
place.)
The moment Russian propaganda shifts its discourse, we can reasonably
expect the Russian people to change their feelings about Ukraine. But what do
we do about Ukrainians' hatred of Russia? Alexey Levinson, a sociologist who
works at the Levada Center, thinks the relationship at a behavior level will
recover after a political settlement to the conflict (though one isn't expected
any time soon). Prevailing attitudes, however, will remain hostile for the next
two generations, at least. Ukrainians won't soon forgive Russia. For
Ukrainians, the ongoing conflict is a national tragedy, and the soured
relationship with the Donbas is just one aspect of this catastrophe.
Political analyst Alexey Makarkin agrees: Ukrainians' dislike for Russia
will be with us for years to come. With the conflict still smouldering today,
Ukrainians continue to fear the resumption of major fighting. Also as a result
of the conflict, the pro-Russian segment of Kiev's political class has
disappeared almost entirely, leaving no grounds whatsoever on which to build a
minimally positive agenda for negotiations with Moscow.
Today's situation in Ukraine isn't like the one in Georgia after the
2008 war. Even before that conflict, Georgians knew they weren't in control of
the disputed territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. (And Russia didn't
absorb these places after the war, either.) That war was over fast, and the
West never imposed any damaging sanctions against Russia. Hatred of Russia was
high then, but Moscow and Tbilisi restored political and trade ties
fairly quickly. On top of all this, many people in Georgia were unhappy with
then President Mikheil Saakashvili, and some held him partly responsible for
the war. His exit from Georgian politics made relations with Moscow
easier.
In Ukraine, on the other hand, President Petro Poroshenko was elected in
the aftermath of losing Crimea and amid an undeclared war in the Donbas. Even
the incompetence of the new authorities in Kiev doesn't have any influence on
how Ukrainians feel about Moscow.
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