Your author
having promised himself to blog as little as possible whilst wandering somewhat
aimlessly around Asia for a month, has tried to let the resignation
of Aivaras Abromavicius go without making any comment – however, as this
entry exists, it was impossible not to write a few lines regarding the matter.
To state this
resignation is a political disaster for both President Poroshenko and Prime
Minister Yatseniuk is to be entirely frank. It is also a disaster for the
Ministry of Economic Development too – for there were several good Deputy
Ministers unlikely to remain either.
Regular
readers will have been aware of Igor Kononenko, presidential “enforcer”, the
President’s long-term business partner, and leading member of the current “High
Chamberlains/Grey Cardinals” nefariously shuffling about behind the
Ukrainian political curtain – as this
previous entry (of several) made clear.
Indeed a
reader may rightly wonder just how seamlessly interchangeable the names
Poroshenko and Kononenko are at times domestically, when it comes to matters
political, nefarious, or both.
That the
maneuvering of Mr Abromavicius out of the Ministry of Economic Development
would occur prior to any privatisation of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) was
also predictedimmediately after the political
festive break by this blog.
“Indeed, if Aivaras Abromavicius is “rotated” during the Cabinet
reshuffle and moved elsewhere in government – he is too good to be discarded –
then it will be for purely nefarious reasons.”
Those purely
nefarious reasons relate to the “management” of the privatisation process, and
also the “management” of SOEs.
His removal as
Minister from the ministry that will oversee such matters was clearly a matter
of necessity for the dark powers behind the Ukrainian political curtain.
An honest man and a squeaky clean privatisation of SOEs is clearly not in
their interests – even if an honest man controlling a squeaky clean
privatisation programme is unquestionably in the interests of Ukraine.
The issue was
how to remove Mr Abromavicius from the privatisation and SOE management
appointment process when he was and is so highly thought of by Ukrainian civil
society, society, and major donor nations to Ukraine. Sacking him was
clearly out of the question, so political dark arts were required.
Among a chain
of events, Mr Abromavicius states he and his ministry were subjected to
pressures under which the ministry could not work effectively. Indeed it
is claimed that a “Kononenko man” simply arrived as a newly appointed Deputy
Minister to oversee Naftogaz and SOE management appointments – in short to
oversee the corruption and money flows associated with state subsidies,
recapitalisation and bad debt write-offs that flow into Naftogaz and SOEs, and
then onward into nefarious pockets.
Mr
Abromavicius stated the pressures placed upon himself and his ministry were
from specific people – “These people have names, I will say one of these names – Ihor
Kononenko”.
And thus a
public and politically prickly resignation occurred. Bravo
Mr Abromavicius for having the moral fortitude to cause significant
political damage to both President, Prime Minister and the “grey cardinals”
lurking behind the curtain alike – not before time!
The political
damage caused was swift in coming (within a matter of hours) via
a public note signed by 10 Ambassadors to
Ukraine from extremely significant nations as far as President Poroshenko,
Prime Minister Yatseniuk, and Ukraine as a nation are concerned. An
unusual occurrence, but a necessary one, for the resignation of a much
respected minister, and the public claims he made, could not and should not have
gone without significant diplomatic response. That it was so swift and
public is a credit to those Ambassadors who did not quibble about signing up
immediately.
Naturally
President Poroshenko was forced to act swiftly in response, having a private meeting
with Mr Abromavicius in an effort to have him retract his resignation and
mitigate the already significant damage caused.
To be blunt,
it seems unlikely that Mr Abromavicius would retract his statement.
He appears to have far too much integrity and moral fibre to return to
office simply to save presidential, cabinet and Ihor Kononenko blushes.
He may well
return to office (and hopefully he will) – but almost certainly not within the
current government.
If he does,
what assurances are there that Mr Kononenko, now under public scrutiny again
(having been accused of nefarious acts not so very long ago by the then SBU
Chief Nalyvaichenko – Nalyvaichenko was subsequently sacked shortly
after making accusations against the President’s chum) will not undermine
reforms once more?
In his
defence, Mr Kononenko is now playing political theatrics in an attempt to
mitigate the very real and significant political damage this has caused to his
friend President Poroshenko and his relationships with the nations he is
reliant upon.
Mr Kononenko
has resigned as First Deputy Chairman of the President’s party – as if this is
meant to signify in any way a reduction in his actual power within the party,
or access to the President. He has also “insisted” that both he and Mr Abromavicius
undertake a lie detector test over statements made that Mr Kononenko refutes.
Further, he has also offered unconditional cooperation with
the National Anti-Corruption Bureau over the matter.
The damage
however is done. None of this will mitigate for the resignation of
Mr Abromavicius within certain capitals and their respective diplomatic
missions, whatever may yet appear in the public realm, or whatever actions are
taken.
The embassies
of all the signatory nations to the note expressing ire over
Mr Abromavicius’ resignation will all be very much aware of what Mr
Kononenko is and has been doing since becoming the Presidential “High
Chamberlain” (just as all were, and are, aware of the actions of Martynenko
before the Prime Minister forced him upon his political sword). As those
embassies will be very aware of what he has been doing and with whom, when
urgent questions were asked from respective capitals, those capitals are now
very much aware of what Mr Kononenko has been doing, and with whom.
Mr Kononenko,
and his friend President Poroshenko, will also be very aware that a good deal
of what nefarious and/or odious actions Mr Kononenko has taken (in the
President’s name, or by inference) are also now known and at the forefront in
the minds of international interlocutors – and in a lot of detail too.
The choice
therefore facing Mr Kononenko and President Poroshenko is one of Mr Kononenko’s
political suicide (per Prime Minister Yatseniuk sacrificing Martynenko) or
President Poroshenko taking significant and lasting (perhaps fatal) political
damage among the nations he is relying upon for support.
Those nations
are already clearly not going to settle for conversations that can be
summarised as “And what about corruption President Poroshenko?” to be answered
“Look at the Russians in Donbas breaking their agreements and killing us still”
as an answer.
As President
Poroshenko has not “released” the Prosecutor General, Mr Shokin, despite very
robust public comment by international partners of note bluntly inferring he
should go, is it likely that his old friend, business partner, political party
“enforcer” (a role that will continue regardless of any formal position) Mr
Kononenko will be sacrificed – or will President Poroshenko take more needless
(and this time perhaps fatal) political damage?
What seems
long ago, immediately after President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Yatseniuk
both took office, it was stated here in the blog that they would and could take
Ukraine only so far along any reformation road, for both would be either unable
and/or unwilling to completely severe the nefarious ties to, or forgo entirely
the corrupt money flows, of the old corrupt and cancerous system.
Thus far,
despite the undeniable (slow) reform progress made (at least on paper), neither
President nor Prime Minister have given any resolute indication (discounting
rhetoric) that they are personally willing to do “whatever it takes” to build a
nation upon the solid, rather than rotten, foundations any nation building
requires.
It is already
probably far too late for Prime Minister Yatseniuk to convincingly lead another
government making claims of “reform” and “anti-corruption” as the agenda
toppers.
The attempts
by Mr Kononeko to mitigate the fallout of the Abromavicius resignation via his
hollow political theatrics will fool nobody, and thus President Poroshenko has
a definitive decision to make over his own presidential political future if he
is in any way entertaining the thought of a second term (or perhaps seeing out
a full first term).
It seems the
current political class remain determined to snatch their own defeat from the
jaws of their own victory. Fortunately for Ukraine, it will survive and
eventually reform in spite of, rather than because of, its current political
class.
Now, back to
the Asian sunshine whilst awaiting a “new” Cabinet of Ministers – or not.
No comments:
Post a Comment