Ireland's election: A nasty surprise for the Irish government

WHEN polling stations closed in Ireland at 10pm on February 26th, Fine Gael and Labour, the two parties that make up the governing coalition, were hoping that the pollsters would be wrong. History, in the form of the surprise victory last May of the Conservative party in Britain after five years of austerity, could be repeated in Ireland, they thought.

But those hopes were soon dashed by two exit polls published overnight, suggesting that the government parties have done even worse than expected. Fine Gael was expecting more than 30% of the vote and to emerge the largest party in the Dáil, Ireland's lower chamber of parliament, by a large margin. Although the full result may not be known until Tuesday, initial tallies suggest the party may have received as little as 25% of the vote, with second-placed Fianna Fáil, the populist party that dominated Irish politics before the financial crisis, hot on its heels in terms of seats. And Labour looks as though it will do worse than predicted too. Although Joan Burton, the Labour leader (pictured right) still managed to retain her seat, her party is set to lose the vast majority of its representatives.

In contrast, the opposition, in the form of Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin (a left-wing nationalist party), and other smaller left-leaning groupings, look set to make big gains. Independents are also expected to receive a record share of the vote: as much as a sixth of the total, according to the exit polls. Symbolically, the first candidate declared elected was Shane Ross, the head of the Independent Alliance, a grouping of non-aligned politicians. 

 The result will leave Fine Gael and Labour wondering what went wrong. The future of Enda Kenny (pictured left) as leader of Fine Gael will come into question; Ms Burton may also be in jeopardy. The polls had long predicted Labour's rout, as voters punished it for the government's austerity policies over the past five years; for Fine Gael, however, the result is a shock. Its campaign was gaffe-prone: one low point was Mr Kenny calling his own constituents "all-Ireland whingers". But it is also clear that its main message, "Let's keep the recovery going", which it borrowed from the British Conservatives' successful campaign, failed to resonate among Irish voters.

 That is partly because ordinary people in Ireland have not benefited from the return to economic growth as much as those in Britain. In spite of GDP growth of more than 5% a year, one recent survey found that only 26% of Irish people felt better off than a year ago. Fine Gael's ground campaign this month has also been regarded as much poorer than that of the Conservatives' last year.

The election may also mark a watershed in Irish politics. It could turn out to be the first election in the history of the Irish state in which the two parties that emerged out of the Irish civil war of the 1920s, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, failed to win more than 50% of the ballots cast. But the fragmentation of support leaves no obvious coalition able to assemble a majority, much like recent elections in Portugal and Spain.

The leaders of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have ruled out a deal with each other; the parties’ mutual distrust dates back to the civil war. Besides, Fianna Fáil fears it would lose support if it became Fine Gael’s junior coalition partner, just as Labour has over the past five years. Both parties, and particularly Fianna Fáil, have also ruled out any coalition involving Sinn Féin, which they see as fiscally irresponsible, and tainted by its past involvement in violence and links to the Irish Republican Army in Northern Ireland. 

Fianna Fáil has also said that it does not want to go into government and leave Sinn Féin as the official opposition, fearing that putting the party near power could discourage foreign investment into Ireland. That appears to leave one solution: some sort of temporary confidence-and-supply deal between the government and Fianna Fáil, with another election being called later in the year. The Irish people have spoken, but they may soon be asked to speak again—and louder.

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