After almost
two years on the outside, signs are growing that Russia may soon be invited in
from the cold.
The
worsening of crises from Syria to Libya are forcing the international community
to reconsider sanctions slapped on President Vladimir Putin’s government over
Ukraine as a way of getting a key diplomatic power broker on board. Of late, a
flurry of senior officials from the U.S. and the European Union have suggested
a thaw is within reach.
“There
have been clear signs of a ‘pacification’ process recently,” said Simon
Quijano-Evans, chief emerging markets strategist at Commerzbank AG. “It does
look as though all sides are starting to push more markedly for resolutions to
the current geopolitical mess.”
Since
Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, restrictions and bans against the
largest exporter of oil and natural gas to Europe have tightened and Putin was
booted from the Group of Eight. Setting the scene for an end to its isolation
are government officials in France and Germany, who are running out of patience
with what they say is Ukraine’s inability to live up to its obligations of a
peace deal they helped put together. They also complain that Russia is falling
short of its commitments.
Testing Waters
Secretary
of State John Kerry used Davos, Switzerland, as a high-profile platform to
raise the prospect that the U.S. may consider lifting sanctions later this
year, assuming the terms of the so-called Minsk accord are implemented.
Since then, there has been a flurry of voices echoing that sentiment.
German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble wrote in the Frankfurter AllgemeineZeitung
newspaper Monday that the EU should forge closer ties with Russia to help
resolve the civil war in Syria and reduce tension in the Middle East between
Sunni and Shia Muslims. That came on the heels of Economy Minister Emmanuel
Macron telling his country’s businessmen in Moscow that France would like to
see sanctions lifted by the summer.
“Kerry
is holding the possibility of lifting the sanctions but Russia has to do
certain things, like cooperate on Ukraine and Syria and then the U.S. would
reverse some sanctions,” said Mark Katz, a professor of government and politics
at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.
Appease
Europe?
Katz,
a Soviet expert, added that the top U.S. diplomat was also seeking to “appease
those European allies who are not happy with sanctions.”
Europe
has a long-standing reliance on Russia’s gas supply and is struggling to cope
with the throngs of migrants bleeding into its borders from Syria. With Syrian
peace talks planned to start Jan. 29 -- and Russia a key player at that
negotiating table -- the Ukraine crisis is no longer the only consideration for
policy makers.
While
Russia was never fully excluded from international affairs -- it played a
critical role in the talks that last July led to a deal on Iran’s nuclear
program -- relations with the West have suffered, especially over Syria where
Putin has militarily backed the regime of Bashar al-Assad, whom the U.S. and
France have been trying to push out of power.
Putin’s
Priority
Calls
for better relations with Russia show Putin’s success at convincing them that
he’s interested in conflict resolution, even when that’s not necessarily the
case, said James Nixey, head of the Russia and Eurasia program at the U.K.’s
Chatham House think tank.
“The
West’s priority is Syria, Russia’s priority is Ukraine; their interests are
substantially different from ours,” Nixey said in an interview. “Putin can say,
‘If you do me a deal on Ukraine and give me a Syria influence, then I’ll turn
around the direction of my bombers and I’ll do more to come onside,’ which is
attractive for the West whose primary problem is not Russia but Islamic
fundamentalism.”
The
road to rehabilitation is not without big obstacles. On Jan. 21, a U.K. report
ruled that Putin “probably” approved the
murder of former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko by two government agents a
decade ago. Adam Szubin, who oversees U.S. Treasury sanctions, told BBC Panorama, a
current affairs television program, that Putin is corrupt and that the U.S.
government has known this for a long time.
The
deadline for the Minsk accord -- agreed by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia,
France and Germany to resolve the conflict in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region
-- was extended into this year as both sides blame the other for delays in
implementation. In the meantime, U.S. and EU curbs have contributed to a steep
slide in the ruble, which has been exacerbated by tumbling oil prices. That
creates an incentive for Putin also to be more forthcoming.
For
its part, Ukraine says that a full cease-fire must be in place in the military
conflict zone and that it should regain control over its border with Russia
before the Kiev government can proceed with granting more powers to the region.
France
and Germany may hold talks with Russia and Ukraine on Feb. 8 to try to
break the deadlock over Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a
news conference in Moscow on Tuesday. “More and more of our partners are coming
to understand that it can’t go on like this any more and it’s harming their
interests,” he said.
Schaeuble,
for one, believes a meeting of the minds with Russia is possible.
“If
I correctly understand Russia’s security interests with respect to Islamist
terrorism, it rather has a problem with ambitions grounded in Sunni Islam,”
Schaeuble wrote in the op-ed. “Why should we not be able to develop a
joint strategy with Russia to defuse tensions between a Saudi-led Sunni
coalition and an Iran-led Shia coalition?”
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