Seemingly implausible alliances become possible in the
ever-changing world. One could say that Ukraine and Turkey are neighbors, the
Black Sea being the geographical connection point. Besides, both Ukraine and
Turkey have already become “hostile” states in Russia’s political and public
spheres. Thus, Kiev and Ankara might cooperate on the basis of the “enemy of my
enemy is my friend” paradigm. Let us explore the possibility of bilateral
relations between Turkey and Ukraine.
Turkey officially supports Ukraine after the Russian
annexation of Crimea. Truth to be told, this support is expressed quite
vaguely, using standard diplomatic language. For example, a year ago Turkey’s
PM Ahmet Davutoglu stated that “the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine is of
importance not only to us, but also to the rest of the world”. Similar remarks
were later made by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Ankara expresses
worries about the Crimean Tatars, who are ethnically related to Turks. However,
at least earlier, Turkey’s worries about “the future of the Crimean Tatars”
were closer to their official support for Ukraine.
On the other hand, for a long time Ankara was rather
friendly towards Russia. For example, Turkey did not take part in the sanctions
that the West imposed in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine. Rumor had
it that Turkey would not oppose the annexation of Crimea, if Moscow guaranteed
“more rights than Ukraine could offer” to the Crimean Tatars. According to
fergananews.com, such is the opinion of Mohammed Zahid Gul, an expert close to
the Turkish President.
This point of view, popular in Turkey some time ago,
is confirmed by other facts. For example, the country’s navy did not mind the
international blockade of Crimean ports. According to figures from 2014, Turkey
was the leading perpetrator. This shows that at that time Turkey’s actions were
at odds with the officially declared support of Ukrainian territorial integrity.
One might call Ankara’s actions hypocritical, but
quite possibly Turkey viewed these actions in the scope of realpolitik,
at the same time supporting the Western position and seeking economically
beneficial relations with Russia.
Turkey’s actions were surely noticed in Moscow. Two years ago Kremlin
decided to use Ankara in the game against the West. Moscow decided to “punish”
the EU and “encourage” Turkey; Russia halted the construction of the South
Stream pipeline and announced the Turkish Stream pipeline project that had to
go through Turkey’s territory. At first Turkey supported Moscow’s initiative,
but later on her interest in the project faded away.
After a short time the relations between Turkey and
Russia began to crumble. The breaking point came in autumn of 2015, when Moscow
got directly involved in the Syrian conflict. According to one of the versions,
Moscow rushed into the Syrian conflict in order to engage the West with hopes
to become a part of the US-led coalition against the Islamic State. In the
tradition of good old realpolitik, Moscow might have
expected to “trade” Syria for Ukraine. However, such a strategy was not
successful, because the US and its allies decided against seeing the issues of
Syria and Ukraine as a package deal.
Despite how real Russia’s intentions were, her
involvement in the Syrian conflict angered Turkey. Ankara has her own interests
in the region and wants Assad out of the office. Besides, Russian warplanes are
constantly breaching Turkish airspace and bombing Ankara-backed Syrian Turkmen
positions. This tension reached its highest point last year, when on the 24thof
November Turkey downed a Russian warplane.
Moscow did not expect that, although
Turkey had already warned that it would not put up with the breaches of its
airspace. Russia’s President Vladimir called this incident “back-stabbing”;
Turkey instantly became the number one “enemy” in the Russian public sphere,
pushing Ukraine and the US aside. Moscow also started an economic war with
Turkey and ignored all of Ankara’s attempts to mitigate the situation. This is
a reason for the anger felt in Turkey today. Ankara declared to prepare a case
against Moscow for the World Trade Organization and to protect its business and
business interests by other means as well.
Such an aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations could
be a great opportunity for Kiev, because right now Ukraine is in dire need of
allies. In this case the geopolitical factors are on the side of Ukraine. The
cooperation of Kiev and Ankara could be strengthened in the common context –
The Black Sea region. At the moment there are also preconditions for an active
economic cooperation between the two countries, as both of them essentially
lost the Russian market.
Ukraine and Turkey could find more common ground, from
the aforementioned Crimean Tatar issue to the safety concerns in the Black Sea
basin. An emphasis on these issues in bilateral relations should be among the
priority goals of the Ukrainian foreign policy (namely Ukrainian, because Kiev
has a bigger interest than Ankara). Especially since Russia is already nervous
about the prospect of such a coalition.
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