Secretary of State John Kerry‘s meeting with
Russian President Vladimir
Putin on Tuesday has revived one of Washington’s
top guessing games: Is Mr. Putin impressed by Western sanctions? A
well-informed Russian friend of mine told me Monday that Mr. Putin will not
rethink his Ukraine strategy until he is convinced that Europe and the
U.S. are able to make their current policy stick.
Is he convinced yet? Lately I’ve heard U.S. officials
express confidence that they are getting their message across to Mr. Putin.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been the pivotal figure here,
saying publicly that sanctions can be lifted only if February’s Minsk 2 agreement, which called for military withdrawals in Ukraine and
political compromise, is really being implemented. Her meaning seems clear enough:
a) nobody believes Moscow is abiding by the agreement, and b) the most serious
test of Russia’s compliance will come only at the end of the year, when Minsk 2
calls for it to restore a normal and secure international border with Ukraine.
So expect sanctions to hold into 2016.
Meanwhile, the European Union has renewed one round of
sanctions last month, and the smart money says it will renew a second round in
June. Smart money also says the Greeks have been told to forget about currying
favor with Mr. Putin by blocking an EU consensus on sanctions.
Listening to U.S. and European officials and experts
explain all this, I had almost overcome my skepticism. Then I read Mr. Putin’s opening statement at his Sunday press conference with Ms. Merkel, who was in Moscow to lay a wreath in
honor of Russians who died in World War II. I’ve now changed my mind
again. The president of Russia does not think this fight is over. He clearly intends
to teach smart money a thing or two.
See what you think: On Sunday, after a mere nod to the
solemnity of the weekend’s observances in honor of the 70th anniversary of the
defeat of Nazi Germany, Mr. Putin went straight into a long complaint about the
economic toll that sanctions are taking on both countries. The numbers are
impressive. Trade with Germany (Russia’s most important trading partner) was
down 6.5% last year—the first decline in half a decade. In the first two months
of 2015, said Mr. Putin, the drop was a staggering 35%. Playing to the gallery,
he informed Chancellor Merkel that German business people do not like these
“artificial barriers.” They’re “pragmatic by nature.”
Mr. Putin admitted he had homework to do, but he
expressed confidence that, slowly, Minsk 2 is gaining traction. He pledged that
he would use “all possible influence” to get the separatists in eastern Ukraine
to live up to their end of the bargain. And, to leave no doubt about what he’s
after, he said he is sending a trade delegation to Brussels next week.
This was not the performance of a Russian leader who
thinks he has lost the sanctions game. Vladimir Putin, putting on his most
“pragmatic,” let’s-be-reasonable face, is fighting hard.
Stephen Sestanovich, a professor at Columbia
University and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, is the author of “Maximalist: America in the World
From Truman to Obama.” He is on Twitter: @ssestanovich.
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